Bournemouth vs Luton tips and predictions: Well-drilled Hatters can frustrate red-hot Cherries

Andoni Iraola’s Cherries are in delicious form as they prepare to face Luton Town at the Vitality Stadium on Saturday.

The quality, execution and arrogance of their win at Old Trafford was such that it belongs on Jose Mourinho’s office wall.

Bournemouth conceded possession over 90 minutes and backed themselves to deal with United. They allowed 20 shots at goal, which only averaged 0.05 xG.

Despite fashioning just three shots on target, Marcus Tavernier pulled the strings and created three of four big chances, including two goals, averaging 0.14 xG.

On the other hand, Luton have taken a less scientific approach to facing the big boys. Their approach can be described as more old-fashioned, but it’s still effective.

Liverpool, Arsenal and Man City all left Kenilworth Road knowing they’d be in a game and despite conceding quality chances, the Hatters have a habit of hanging in there.

As silly as it sounds, this might just be Bournemouth’s biggest test for some weeks. The emphasis is on the home side to dominate possession and find a way through the gaps.

Coming through their last five unbeaten and with a goal difference of +9 is outstanding but they were able to allow their opposition relatively high possession.

They’ll have a harder job convincing Luton to get on the ball and push high up the pitch in numbers, so we think it’s worth chancing the visitors to keep it close.

Another byproduct of the way this game is likely to be played could mean we have to wait until the second half for things to open up, so the first half could be short on chances.

Team news

Darren Randolph, Max Aarons, Ryan Fredericks, Lloyd Kelly, Emiliano Marcondes, Tyler Adams, Alex Scott and Hamad Traore are ruled out for the hosts.

Rob Edwards is hoping Reece Burke and Gabriel Osho will be available for selection this weekend, but Cauley Woodrow and Dan Potts are out.

Key stats

- At least one team have scored two goals in Bournemouth’s last 13 matches
- 75% of goals scored in Luton’s games have been after the break
- In 18 games across all competitions, Luton have lost by two clear goals on four occasions

Suggested bets

Luton +1.25 Asian handicap

Half with most goals: Second

Over 2.5 goals