What is value betting and how to make money from it?

It’s where bettors can really master the art of betting and increase their chances of winning in the long run. They are making smarter decisions instead of following a crowd.

Bettors will need to understand the probability of an outcome of an event and then spot the opportunity where the bookmaker might be more generous than they should.

For example with the toss of a coin it’s 50/50 whether it will be heads or tails. Bookmakers should offer evens (1/1) as the true odds based on the probability of the outcome.

But if you were offered odds of 2/1 instead for that one toss of the coin then that would represent a very appealing value bet.

Value betting is not a quick fix but a longer strategic game where rewards will eventually outweigh the risks.

How to spot a value bet?

Know your playing field:

Bettors hunting for value bets will already know their sport of choice like the back of their hand, and will be able to spot discrepancies in the market that will reveal a value bet.

For example, a horse on a bit of a losing streak might return to a track and conditions that he has previously had success on. His price will be mainly based on his recent poor performances, which could be quite big. He will be expected to improve with the conditions in his favour so that could be considered a value bet.

Comparison:

Analyse the odds of different bookmakers, this could flag inconsistencies in the market that could point to a value bet.

It could also identify softer bookies who aren’t as quick to update their markets or traders who might have holes in their own knowledge.

Stats, databases and software:

There are several stats tools and databases that provide plenty of insight in team and player form and performance and these can be used to find value.

There’s also free and premium value betting software that will do all the hard work for you. Prices will vary depending on how you use them.

What is implied probability?

To understand a value bet, you’ll need to tackle the much misunderstood topic of ‘implied probability’ which is the chance of an outcome happening.

Implied probability is calculated by dividing one by the decimal odds. For example Manchester City to win the Premier League is 6/4 (2.5 in decimal odds) 

1 ÷ 2.5 = 0.4 x 100 = 40% implied probability

So 40% is what the bookmaker’s odds suggest that outcome will happen. 

Compare the markets and do your research, and you might estimate there’s a 50% chance of Manchester City winning the league, so the discrepancy means there’s value in taking that bet. 

In a nutshell the implied probability is less than your own assessed probability then that represents good value.

 

Winning strategies for value betting

Knowledge:

Knowledge and research are key here, don’t expect to rock up to your next horse racing meeting knowing little about the sport and expect to find value.

You need to be able to identify various factors that make the bookies’ odds appear overpriced.

Choose a sport you are most comfortable with, even go as far drilling down into a preferred team or player could unearth extra value.

Compare the markets:

Keeping a close eye on various bookies and their markets will reveal potential value bets, but creating your own odds before the markets go live will also give you a useful comparison tool.

Shopping around for odds and having several accounts with different bookies will allow you to pick the best odds on offer.

Sometimes bookmakers aren’t quick at adjusting their odds when the market shifts, or are offering higher odds for a promotional reason.

Specialise:

Bookies are all over the Premier League, Group 1 races and other big sporting spectacles like a rash. But are they as strong on the National League or a low key all weather evening meeting at Newcastle?

Becoming an expert in a road less travelled by the bookies could provide value, even if they don’t have the depth of markets as the more high profile competitions.

Manage your bankroll:

Always keep to your financial limits and ensure you have a staking plan, so you’ve set an amount your are prepared to lose in a given period.

Note taking:

If you are going to do value betting properly you’ll need to crack open a notepad and start logging your tips, results and reasons of success and failure.

Be patient:

‘Only fools rush in’ as the song lyric goes from some famous bloke, and bettors would be wise to keep that soundtrack playing in their heads. 

Waiting for opportunities to arise is important rather than charging at bets willy-nilly. Value bets will crop up, just not all the time, so bide your time to pounce.

Banish emotion:

Stick to the stats, don’t be drawn to a bet because the horse sounds a bit like your mum’s name. That might work on the odd occasion, but it will sink you in the long term.

Don’t be a sheep:

Everyone is betting on the Super Sunday clash between Liverpool v Manchester United; there are loads of markets and the bookies have even put together some nice one click bet builders for you. That’s nice of them isn’t it, you just have to enter the stake and press bet. Sucker

Dig a little deeper and you might find some value - there’s a League Two match kicking off just an hour before that might be worth a look instead.

Positives of value betting

Should be profitable in the long term

You could lose a higher percentage of bets and still make a profit

Negatives of value betting

Can be tricky if your knowledge is weak

Time consuming

Losing runs are common

Smaller win percentage in short term

What is each-way value betting?

There are plenty of opportunities to find value in each-way betting.

Looking for races with more than three places in large fields can provide value and often earn you a free bet at the very least.

Keep an eye out for races with eight runners or more to get three places, and 16 runners or more to get four places or more. Some bookies will go as high as seven places on big field races such as the Grand National.

The greater chance of placing is on races with 8-10 runners, especially ones with a short-priced favourite which in turn can create a skewed place market.

 

What’s the difference between a value bet, a regular bet and a safe bet?

Value bet is where the bookies’ odds are better than you would expect

Regular bet is where you rely on the bookmakers odds without assessing true probability

Safe bet is a low odds low risk

 

READ MORE: Who are the best football tipsters and who has the the best strike rate?

READ MORE: What are the easiest bets in football to win?

 

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