Southampton vs Bournemouth verdict, predicted score, key stats and suggested bets

Premier League, Thursday April 27, Kick-off 7:45pm, live on BT Sport 3

Bournemouth to win

A win for Southampton would complete a first league double over Bournemouth since 2011.

A win for Bournemouth would be just their third in the history of the fixture and their second at St Mary's Stadium.

The away side has dominated this fixture in recent years, winning the last four and going unbeaten in nine of 10.

Southampton are the only team in the Premier League to have picked up more points per game away from home.

Jan Bednarek was forced off with a head injury against Arsenal but will be clear of the concussion protocol in time for Thursday. Che Adams and Ainsley Maitland-Niles are also set to return. Mohammed Salisu (groin), Valentino Livramento (undisclosed) and Juan Larios (thigh) are all unavailable due to injury.

Visitors Bournemouth will be without Ryan Fredericks (calf) and Junior Stanislas (undisclosed). Hamed Traore could return from an ankle injury, but Jack Stephens is ineligible to face his parent club.

Southampton's 3-3 draw at the Emirates Stadium was one of the more sensational games of the season. Leading 3-1 with two minutes to go, the Saints would have expected to win. As it played out, they should have lost deep into stoppage time.

It looked like Bournemouth were cruising to Premier League survival after back-to-back away wins over Leicester and Tottenham bumped them up to 33 points. A humbling 4-0 defeat to West Ham reminded them there's still work to be done though.

The Saints and the Cherries have enjoyed an amiable rivalry over the years, although fans have been unable to agree on how to refer to the derby. We'll call it El Classicoast.

El Classicoast has favoured the team having to travel through the New Forest in recent years. The away side are unbeaten in six meetings, in nine of the last 10, and have won the last four.

Southampton's level of performance at Arsenal has given Saints fans confidence that their Premier League stay isn't over just yet, although the result does little for their cause.

The draw leaves them on 24 points after 32 games and if you consider their vastly inferior goal difference, Southampton may need to win four or their six remaining matches just to stand a chance.

Bournemouth is therefore a must-win game if Ruben Selles' side is to have any chance of survival, but they have fared much better away from home this season.

Southampton are the only team in the Premier League to have picked up more points per game away from home. Not only that, but four of their six wins this season have come on the road.

No side in the bottom half has won more games away than Bournemouth this season either. Three of those have come in their last five away matches and it's clear they're growing in confidence.

One of the biggest issues Southampton have faced this season is that St Mary's has become an incredibly easy place to play. Eight of the last 10 teams to visit have won and, arguably, Spurs should have done too.

A win would help Bournemouth reach the 36-point mark with five games remaining. Despite the consensus that a low total could mean survival, things always pick up. Thirty-seven points have ensured survival in 15 of the past 22 Premier League seasons.

Southampton will have to open up and go for it at some point in this game. Bournemouth are extremely quick on the break and have the quality to put the first nail in their neighbour's coffin.