Newcastle United vs Brighton & Hove Albion verdict, predicted score, key stats and suggested bets

Newcastle are level on points with Man Utd in third place but are only one point in front of fifth-placed Liverpool ahead of the clash with sixth-placed Brighton.

Premier League, Thursday May 18, Kick-off 7.30pm, live on Sky Sports

Newcastle vs Brighton BTTS, yes

Newcastle vs Brighton over 3.5 goals

Newcastle have lost just twice at home in the Premier League this season (to Arsenal and Liverpool).

Newcastle have scored at least two goals in nine of their last 11 Premier League matches.

There have been over 2.5 goals scored in seven of Newcastle's last eight Premier League games.

There have been over 2.5 goals scored in six of Brighton's last seven Premier League games.

Only Man Utd have conceded fewer than Newcastle's 13 goals at home.

Only Arsenal have scored more than the 33 goals Brighton have scored away from home.

Miguel Almiron came in for Jacob Murphy at Leeds and Eddie Howe could keep Almiron in his starting XI. Howe must also decide whether to pair Callum Wilson and Alexander Isak together again in attack for only the third game. Sean Longstaff remains sidelined with a foot injury.

Julio Enciso picked up a knock at Arsenal but should be fit for Brighton. Solly March (hamstring), Jeremy Sarmiento (metatarsal), Adam Lallana (hamstring), Jakub Moder (ACL), Adam Webster, Joel Veltman (hamstring) and Tariq Lamptey (knee) are all sidelined.

Amazingly, the reverse fixture on the South Coast ended all square in August, but there were plenty of chances and this return clash looks full of goals.

Brighton are undoubtedly the surprise team of the season, but they have been hard to work out of late. They are full of attacking talent and their short-passing style often sees them dominate possession. In fact, only Man City have recorded more possession away from home this season than Brighton (57.8%).

They dismantled Arsenal at The Emirates last time out and look all set to finish in the top six. With that in mind, the 12/5 about them winning in the North-East looks generous. However, the Seagulls have had a tendency to not turn up in games over the last month.

Their recent 5-1 humbling at home to Everton is a case in point. The Toffees exposed Brighton in transition with some incisive passing and Newcastle have the players to do exactly the same to Roberto De Zerbi's men.

Brighton also lost 3-1 at Forest and were beaten at Spurs, while in between those results they won at Chelsea and hammered Wolves 6-0.

They certainly won't have any pressure on them on Tyneside, but whether that sees them play freely or fold under pressure from the hosts remains to be seen.

There have been a staggering 31 goals in the last seven games involving Brighton and taking goals in this game looks the sensible play.

Newcastle have seen 29 goals in their last seven games so another 0-0 draw looks about as likely as a Martin Keown apology to Martin Tyler.

The Geordies are chasing fourth spot and an 11th home win of the season would go a long way to firing Howe's men into the top bracket of European football.

The incentive is there for the Magpies and an early goal would be ideal so they could then sit back and try and pick Brighton off in transition. Despite this, the stats suggest late goals are more likely, with Newcastle scoring 14 and conceding six in the last 15 minutes, while Brighton have a record of 15 and seven respectively.

It's a game where the attacking talent on show looks capable of getting the better of their defensive counterparts and it could be a goal-fest with both teams to score nailed on.

That looks a far more solid bet than backing a winner. However, the hosts at 20/21 have more on the line and with Brighton's up-and-down form, it might just be the Geordies' night.

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