Euro 2024 Final: Spain vs England tips and predictions - Back both teams to score in open final

Spain and England will contest the Euro 2024 final in Berlin on Sunday. Unsurprisingly, the Spaniards have been made decisive favourites to lift the crown.

Amid increasing English optimism and cries of ‘It’s coming home!’, hope and bravado are tempered by a sense of realism. And the acceptance that Spain are a bloody good team.

However, bookmakers may be underestimating the Three Lions. Gareth Southgate’s side has shown improvement from one game to the next whilst showing buckets of character.

The attraction with Spain is how they are winning games. Crisp passing, exciting wing-play and committing numbers to the attack. They’ve averaged 2.2 goals per game, a handful of which were wonderful solo efforts.

The notable difference between the sides is that whilst Luis de la Fuente’s team hit the ground running and have looked formidable throughout, Southgate’s men didn’t show their teeth until the quarter-finals.

The switch to a 3-4-2-1 formation has unlocked England’s threat in wide areas and allowed for greater numbers in attack. Their fate in Sunday’s final could hinge on whether they stick or twist.

Previously, Southgate typically deployed two deeper-lying midfielders against top teams. That makes England harder to pass through, but it would also allow the Spanish to control possession and force Harry Kane deep.

The Dutch were at sixes and sevens trying to manage the overloads. Phil Foden drifted wide to link up with Bukayo Saka, Kobbie Mainoo played an advanced role and Kyle Walker stepped into the midfield.

We saw how losing possession allowed the Netherlands to exploit those spaces, but it’s the same story for Spain. Their fullbacks have been found wanting at times and teams have exploited them.

Finals are typically cagey and low-scoring, yet this one has the potential for goals. De la Fuente’s side has allowed 6.5xG across six matches. Germany and France created a higher xG than Spain and neither side has kept a clean sheet in the knockout stages.

 

Team news

Robin Le Normand and Dani Carvajal return from suspension and could replace Nacho and Jesus Navas in the starting XI.

Pedri remains out but Dani Olmo has flourished in his absence, scoring three goals and assisting two.

At 16 years of age, Lamine Yamal has been one of the standout performers of Euro 2024.

Southgate will continue with Walker, John Stones and Marc Guehi in defence.

Luke Shaw replaced an injured Kieran Tripper at halftime against the Netherlands, meaning the Man Utd fullback could start on Sunday.

 

Key stats

- Both teams have conceded in each of their knockout stage matches

- The last three meetings have finished 2-3, 2-1 and 2-2

- Spain are unbeaten in 12 matches at European Championships

- England are unbeaten in 13 matches at European Championships

 

Suggested bets

England +0.25 Asian handicap

Asian goal line: Over 2 goals

Both teams to score