Coventry City vs Luton Town tips: Sky Blues to prevail after tense first half
- George Dempsey
- 25 May 2023
Coventry City and Luton Town were promoted from League Two together in 2018 and now they are 90 minutes from the Premier League.
Ten points separated third-placed Luton and fifth-placed Coventry at the end of the season.
Date, KO time and TV coverage
Championship play-off final, Saturday May 27, Kick-off 4:45pm, live on Sky Sports Main Event
Predicted score
Suggested bets
Coventry City to win
Half time: Draw
Under 2.5 goals
Key stats
The sides drew twice in their regular season meetings. The game finished 1-1 at Coventry Building Society Arena and 2-2 at Kenilworth Road.
Coventry are unbeaten in nine matches and have yet to concede a goal in the play-offs.
Only Burnley and Sunderland have beaten Luton in their last 18 matches.
Luton Town are unbeaten in nine meetings between the teams, drawing five and winning four.
Coventry vs Luton team news
Kasey Palmer (hamstring), Fabio Tavares (achilles) and Callum O’Hare (ACL) will all miss the Championship play-off final for Coventry.
Luton have no long-term injury concerns and if they can come through a week of training unscathed, Rob Edwards will have a full squad to choose from.
Verdict
There was little to separate the sides in the regular season as they played out a pair of draws. However, Luton did finish two places and 10 points above Coventry in the table.
Both sides have been on a fantastic run of form leading up to the play-offs, but it was Coventry who have fared better in the semi-finals.
City were able to shut out the league’s second most potent attack over 180 minutes, drawing 0-0 at home before winning 1-0 at the Riverside. Boro were limited to five shots in the second leg.
Luton made hard work of things by losing 2-1 at the Stadium of Light in the first leg, but they showed their quality at home when beating Sunderland 2-0.
The Hatters and the Sky Blues have the third and fourth best defences in the Championship. Town conceded 0.84 goals per game this season, with City allowing a goal per game.
Luton have found a lot of success by imposing their physical nature on opponents this season. Coventry aren’t likely to be deterred by that and should be able to cope.
No team has conceded fewer goals from set pieces than Coventry, so we think they’re built to withstand whatever their opponents may throw at them.
Eight of the last 10 play-off finals have had two or fewer goals and we expect both sides to approach the first half with caution.
Remarkably, there hasn’t been a 1-1 draw in a Championship play-off final for 21 years. There have been two ties since then, with 18 of 20 games being decided in 90 minutes.
Nine of those 20 games have finished 1-0 and the side finishing in third place has only been promoted in three of the last 10 years.
The Hatters are a major threat aerially. They’ve scored 16 goals from set pieces and plenty more from balls into the box, but City have shown they can stand firm.
Despite the bookmakers' odds, we think Coventry are the side with the quality for the big occasion. Back Coventry City to win a low-scoring contest.
