Copa America 2024 tips and predictions: Venezuela vs Canada - Marsch’s men march on past Group B winners

George Dempsey
2 July 2024

Canada's Jonathan David at Copa America 2024

Venezuela have a perfect record at Copa America 2024 but we’re backing Jesse Marsch’s Canada side to spring another surprise on Friday night (0200 BST, Sat)

Venezuela have been the surprise package at Copa America as wins against Ecuador, Jamaica and Mexico saw them top Group B against the odds.

On reflection, it may just be they were the beneficiaries of the weakest group in the tournament, facing two CONCACAF sides and 10-man Ecuador.

They so nearly dropped points despite having a man advantage for 68 minutes, while their 1-0 win against the Mexicans wasn’t reflective of their performance.

Mexico turned missing chances into an art form as they produced 2.88xG and took 15 shots inside the box, which averaged a remarkably 0.19xG. And somehow, they didn’t score.

You could argue that Canada are the other side to have overachieved at the tournament as a CONCACAF side against three higher-ranking South American sides.

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Jesse Marsch led his side to second place by way of a 1-0 win over Peru, a 0-0 draw with Chile and a respectable 2-0 loss to tournament favourites Argentina.

Even against Lionel Scaloni’s side, the Canadians were initially tough to break down and created several good chances before falling behind.

Despite having little time to prepare, Marsch’s fingerprints are all over this team. The narrow shape limited chances in the box with Peru and Chile’s wide players unable to display a cutting edge.

This tournament has been full of bizarre prices, such as the US being favoured to beat Uruguay and Mexico being priced as likely Group B winners.

We’re not fooled by what we’ve seen from Venezuela, who are bookies' favourites because they’re the CONMEBOL side. Canada have been to break down and could sneak through.