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Championship play-offs betting tips: Sunderland vs Luton Town

Amad Diallo

Sunderland and Luton Town will meet in the EFL Championship play-offs in front of the Sky TV cameras on Saturday afternoon.

Third-placed Luton finished 11 points ahead of Sunderland, who sneaked into sixth place on the final day of the season.

Date, KO time and TV coverage

Championship play-offs semi-final first leg, Saturday 13 May, Kick-off 5:30pm, live on Sky Sports Main Event

Predicted score

Sunderland 1-1 Luton Town

Suggested betting tips

Under 2.5 goals
Match result: Draw
Luton Town +0.25 Asian handicap

Key stats

Twenty-six of the last 35 Championship play-off matches have featured fewer than three goals. A third of those 35 matches have finished 1-0.
Sunderland and Luton Town have drawn their last four meetings 1-1.
Sunderland are unbeaten in nine league matches, a run which included a 1-1 draw with Luton at the Stadium of Light.
Luton Town are unbeaten in their last nine away league matches, with six of those games finishing in a draw.

Verdict

Sunderland's emphatic 3-0 victory away to Preston on the final day, coupled with Millwall's stunning capitulation, booked them a two-legged semi-final against Luton Town.
The visitors have looked assured of a play-off position for most of the season and at one stage looked like automatic promotion contenders. The Hatters will be able to draw on the experience and disappointment of last year's play-off campaign.
Sunderland's young lions are fearless, energetic and a great watch, but they will face a stiff test against a battle-hardened Luton side. Town have only lost once in their last 20 Championship matches, a 1-0 defeat to champions Burnley.
The last four meetings between Sunderland and Luton have ended in a 1-1 draw. That sort of scoreline is in keeping with Luton games, as six of their last nine away matches have been drawn.
Before the run of draws, the sides hadn't met since 2007, but the fixture has a history of being ill-tempered. There have been five red cards and 29 yellow cards in six meetings. Both sides are averaging two cards per game this season.
It's also worth noting that the visitors have only ever picked up one win at the Stadium of Light in 13 attempts, while 17 of their last 20 Championship games have had two or fewer goals.
Over the last two seasons, Luton have held 73% of their opponents to one or fewer goals. At the other end of the pitch, they have failed to score more than once in 68% of their away matches.
All of these statistics suggest a feisty affair lacking in goal-mouth action. We're going to recommend a bet on under 2.5 goals. We also think Luton can use their greater experience to pick up a positive result.

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