Bournemouth vs Leeds United verdict, predicted score, key stats and suggested bets
- George Dempsey
- 29 April 2023
Bournemouth could move 10 points clear of the Premier League relegation zone when they host a Leeds United side desperate for three points.
Leeds sit just two places and one point above the dropzone going into this weekend's fixtures, with Bournemouth six points better off.
Date, KO time and TV coverage
Premier League, Sunday April 30, Kick-off 2pm
Predicted score
Suggested bets
Over 2.5 goals
Both teams to score
Leeds United to win
Key stats
AFC Bournemouth have failed to win 11 of their 16 Premier League home matches.
Bournemouth led 3-1 at Elland Road but lost 4-3. Leeds have won six of seven meetings between the sides.
There have been three or more goals in six of Leeds' last seven Premier League matches.
Both teams have scored in Leeds' last seven Premier League matches.
Team news
Hamed Traore (ankle) will be assessed before the game, but he might have to wait until next week to return to action. Ryan Fredericks (calf) and Junior Stanislas (undisclosed) are unavailable.
Marcus Tavernier limped off in the final 15 minutes of the encounter with Southampton and is a doubt, seemingly with a recurrence of the hamstring issues that have dogged him this season.
Max Wober (hamstring) felt tight after his return to first-team action and played no part against Leicester. He'll be assessed and could return here. Tyler Adams (thigh), Stuart Dallas (leg) and Luis Sinisterra (ankle) are unavailable for the visitors.
Verdict
Bournemouth's 1-0 victory at Southampton should be enough to secure their safety. The win leaves them seven points clear of the bottom three, who will surely struggle to catch them now.
Tavernier's strike was enough to seal the win at St Mary's as Bournemouth comfortably saw out the rest of the game. The hosts did have a goal disallowed for offside, but they rarely threatened.
Leeds' 1-1 draw with Leicester on Wednesday was not what was required. The Whites are running out of winnable games on paper and were made to pay for missed chances.
After a sloppy start, Leeds grew as the first half went on and started to create chances, but it was notable how restrained they were in their play. Javi Gracia doesn't seem to trust his side to play an expansive game.
Bournemouth have now won as many games away from home as they have at home. The Cherries seem to benefit from playing without the ball, having shown their threat on the break, but they aren't particularly comfortable in possession.
Gary O'Neil's men enjoyed 65% of the ball in their 4-0 loss to West Ham, as opposed to an average of 45% in their wins over Southampton, Tottenham and Leicester.
Meanwhile, whatever the intention of their approach is, Leeds are coming across as passive in games. This was evident in the ease with which Crystal Palace and Liverpool found the net at Elland Road.
There's growing frustration among the fan base that Gracia's team selection and in-game management is just as poor as his predecessor's. The growing pressure might just force Leeds to be a little bit more aggressive here.
Another injury to United's star man Luis Sinisterra may force Gracia to turn to Willy Gnonto, a player he's inexplicably shunned in recent weeks. He came off the bench to run Bournemouth ragged in the latter stages of the game at Elland Road, setting up the winner.
Seeing Leeds as the bookmakers' favourites to win on Sunday might raise a few eyebrows, but we can see the logic. Bournemouth are off the back of an emotional night in which they've probably secured their safety while relegating their nearest rival.
Both of these sides have been so unpredictable this season, you can't say with certainty who will win. Leeds seem incapable of keeping a clean sheet and given that neither side are very good in possession, it could descend into end-to-end chaos.
