Bayer Leverkusen vs Roma tips and predictions: Italians strike first as unbeaten run goes on

Bayer Leverkusen’s 2-0 win over Roma last week extended their unbeaten run to 48 matches and took them one step closer to a glorious treble and unbeaten season.

Although the Bundesliga title was wrapped up weeks ago, the Germans dismantled an Eintracht Frankfurt side, 5-1 on Sunday, that had everything to play for.

Second-tier Kaiserslautern await in the DFB Pokal final after a favourable run and wouldn’t it just be typical of football for them to beat the team that conquers this winning machine?

Of the 48 matches unbeaten, Xabi Alonso’s side have won 40 and extended their unbeaten run in Europe to 12 matches. Notably, Roma were the last team to beat them.

There’s little doubt that the Italians are capable of ending their dominance, but Daniele De Rossi’s side are stumbling toward the finish line.

Bryan Cristante’s 90th-minute goal away to Udinese bagged their only win in five at a time when rivals Lazio, who are hot on their heels, have picked up 13 points from five matches.

We also have to consider how poor their away form in European fixtures is. Winning 1-0 in Milan was impressive, so credit where it’s due, but it was only their third win in 15.

It’s unlikely they’ll come here and win by the margin required to progress, and as far as Alonso is concerned, this is a game in its own right and he’ll be sending his side out to win.

That said, there has to be an element of managing the game with the carrot of a European final dangling in front of them, and the visitors will throw everything at this.

We aren’t expecting a turnaround, but the short odds on a home win just don’t reflect Roma’s chances of keeping it close. Pricing the +1 Asian handicap market at even money is an overreaction.

 

Key stats

- Bayer Leverkusen are unbeaten in 48 matches across all competitions
- Bayer Leverkusen are unbeaten in 12 Europa League matches
- Bayer Leverkusen have fallen behind in nine matches in 2024
- Roma have won only three of their last 15 Europa League away matches

 

Suggested bets

Team to score first: Roma

Roma +1 Asian handicap

Over 2.5 goals