Premier League final day: The odds and possible outcomes in the race for European soccer
- Ryan Fitzgerald-Nolan
- 21 May 2021
Chelsea have Champions League upper hand, while West Ham eye Europa League but could drop to the Conference.
The title may be decided and the bottom three already doomed but with places for Europe still on the line, it promises to be another dramatic Premier League finale.
Leicester, fresh from their midweek defeat to Chelsea, will look to regain their place back in the top four after being replaced by a resurgent Liverpool in midweek.
West Ham are set to make their first appearance in Europe since 2016, but will it be in the UEFA Europa League or the newly formed UEFA Europa Conference League?
The third-tier Europa Conference League will feature the seventh-placed finisher. And one of West Ham, Everton, Arsenal, Tottenham or, in exceptional circumstances, Leeds will occupy that position come the end of play on Sunday.
FINAL DAY: Following all the drama in our Soccer Live Score Centre.
So ahead of Sunday's 4pm kick-offs, Planet Sport takes a look at the significance of each match.
The race for the top four
Aston Villa (11th) vs Chelsea (3rd, 67 pts)
Thomas Tuchel's side can secure their place in the Champions League next season by winning the trophy against Manchester City on May 29. However, currently a point ahead of both Leicester and Liverpool, an easier route would be to just win at Villa Park.
Villa are coming off an impressive 2-1 victory over Tottenham, and with a top-half finish out of sight, are playing for pride against a team they drew 1-1 with at Christmas. England international hopefuls Jack Grealish, Tyrone Mings and Ollie Watkins will be looking to impress, however, in what will be their final audition before Gareth Southgate's squad announcement next week.
Liverpool (4th, 66 pts) vs Crystal Palace (13th)
Crystal Palace manager Roy Hodgson bowed out in front of the Selhurst Park fans on Wednesday with two late Arsenal goals condemning them to a 3-1 loss. His side, who have only picked up 10 points from their last 30, travel to the league's form side Liverpool who have a Champions League place on the line.
The Reds' well-publicised misfortunes with injuries and COVID absences have stunted their first title defence in 30 years.
Still, with form players Trent Alexander-Arnold, Thiago Alcantara and the goalscoring Alisson Becker coming into their own in recent weeks, a top-four finish will feel as sweet as any silverware with all circumstances considered.
With Klopp's side level on points with Leicester and holding a four-goal advantage, they will almost certainly only need to match the Foxes' result to be certain of Champions League soccer again next season.
Leicester City (5th, 66 pts) vs Tottenham Hotspur (7th)
Having already written himself into Leicester City folklore, Brendan Rodgers could truly put the icing on the cake by bringing Champions League soccer to the King Power Stadium for only the second time in its history.
The club's FA Cup final victory last weekend means a Europa League place is already assured and they will need a shock in the games involving Chelsea and Liverpool in order to upgrade to the Champions League - or a mauling of Tottenham.
Tottenham can still secure sixth place and Europa League soccer next season with a win, but could drop to as low as ninth with anything less than three points. It would be their first campaign without European soccer in 12 seasons.
Battle for sixth
West Ham United (6th, 62 pts) vs Southampton (14th)
While once a Jesse Lingard-inspired Irons targeted the Champions League, it is now hanging on to a Europa League spot which occupies their thoughts.
A come-from-behind 3-1 win over West Brom at The Hawthorns has put them in the box seat and just avoiding defeat here will guarantee sixth.
Manchester City (1st) vs Everton (8th, 59pts)
With the title wrapped up, Pep Guardiola could be tempted to rest key players ahead of their first ever Champions League final next week.
Everton have only won three of their last 11 league matches but still have designs on seventh. A win and Tottenham failing to beat Leicester would get them it. Or a draw and Tottenham losing, provided Arsenal don't win.
A Conference League berth for the Gunners?
Arsenal (9th, 58 pts) vs Brighton & Hove Albion (16th)
The first ever UEFA Conference League may be a lifeline for Mikel Arteta's Arsenal. However, a win on Sunday may not be enough to gain entry into the Conference League play-off for the Gunners, who also need Spurs and Everton to lose to secure seventh.
Arsenal host Graham Potter's Brighton, who have comfortably secured their fifth consecutive top-flight season.
Leeds United (10th, 56 pts) vs West Bromwich Albion (19th)
Perhaps the most unlikely of the scenarios. Leeds would have to win and need Tottenham and Everton to lose and Arsenal not to win to take their place in the inaugural Conference League. Oh, and they'd also need a 15-goal turnaround in goal difference between them and Spurs.
