World Cup semi-final tips: Two more surprises incoming at a tournament of shocks

Matty Briggs
13 December 2022

The World Cup semi-finals take place on Tuesday and Wednesday and after shock after shock in Qatar so far, two more could be in the offing this week.

The 2022 Qatar World Cup has been a tournament of shocks. The world's minnows are slowly closing the gap on FIFA's elite. That has been evident.

The tone was set on day three when Saudi Arabia, ranked 51st and one of the lowest-ranked teams in the tournament, came back from 1-0 down to stun semi-finalists Argentina.

Lionel Messi's lot recovered to reach the last four, but that was an indicator that this World Cup would see some of the fancied teams rolled over.

Japan were responsible for seeing off Germany and Spain, while Cameroon defeated an under-strength Brazil side and Tunisia did the same in the group stage to an already-qualified France.

A quick calculation of the 60 games so far and roughly 14 games have seen the underdogs win. And with four games to go, it would be crazy to rule out two more shocks in the semi-finals.

So a 23% strike rate for shocks or a 10/3 chance in betting terms.

With that in mind, the general 4/1 about a Croatia win against Argentina looks good value, while 7/1 about a Morocco win is also a tempting prospect.

No value in backing Argentina

Take Croatia first, even without any football analysis and taking the above stats into account, Zlatko Dalic's men, who reached the final in 2018, seem a decent bet.

Croatia and Argentina look well-matched on ability and there will not be any chance of Argentina underestimating their less-fancied rivals after losing 3-0 to them in the group stage in Russia.

The bookies have Lionel Scaloni's men as odds on favourites. But it's hard to find any justification of that price, with Scaloni's team flattering to deceive so far.

La Albiceleste looked home and hosed against a poor Netherlands side in the last eight. But somehow they switched off to allow Wout Weghorst to score twice late on and push the game into extra-time and penalties.

Argentina came through, but their mentality could be their weakness against a Croatia side who are determined and resolute.

Argentina ahead in every game so far

Argentina have been ahead in every game so far, but they have struggled to see teams off. Saudi Arabia came back to beat them in their opening game and Australia went close to grabbing a draw before Netherlands hauled themselves level late on in the quarter-final.

Their heads were wobbling in that game and their discipline came into question - FIFA has opened disciplinary proceedings against both teams.

Spanish referee Antonio Mateu Lahoz issued 18 yellow cards - a World Cup record.

Croatia, meanwhile, are an experienced side and have been cool, calm and collected. They have also shown plenty of resilience and have a knack of winning penalty shootouts.

They beat Denmark and Russia on penalties en route to the final four years ago, and this year have come through shootouts against Japan and Brazil.

Write Croatia off at your peril.

A repeat of the 2018 final - Croatia vs France - remains a possibility. And the moneymen have France as the overwhelming 1/2 favourites.

But another shock should not be ruled out.

Jordan coach predicted Morocco success

Morocco are undoubtedly the tournament's surprise package.

If only we had listened to Jordan coach Adnan Hamad, who suggested that the Atlas Lions of Morocco could be the surprise team.

"It has 20 professional players from major European Leagues. In the qualifiers, it passed with flying colours and has a major chance of progressing from the group.

"I believe that the Moroccan team has the best set of players, and the opportunity is in their hands to be the dark horse of the tournament," said Hamad.

Morocco are dogged and determined and their coach Walid Regragui says his team wins easily for passion and desire.

That has certainly been abundant in their matches so far, with just once goal conceded.

They are a very tight defensive unit that has stopped Croatia, Belgium, Spain and Portugal from scoring.

A lack of possession will not worry them either. They have had less than 33% on average to date - only Costa Rica has lower - but they remain a threat on the counter-attack.

And in Hakim Ziyech, Sofyan Amrabat, Achraf Hakimi and goalkeeper Yassine Bounou, they have players who can compete with the very best.

France have shown glimpses of their class, but they were fortunate to edge past England and that may have taken more out of them than they realise.