Big clubs' World Cup hangover set to boost betting value

Paul Bathurst
21 December 2022

The World Cup might be behind us, but Tipstrr football expert Paul Bathurst thinks that it has created a hangover headache for club managers, and potential betting opportunities for football punters.

With the World Cup finally ending, it appears that the return to club football offers the potential for a relatively unique opportunity to find extra value within the betting markets.

Much has been made of the big clubs contending with multiple players making the World Cup Final within the Argentinian and French squads. Of these, Spanish side Atletico Madrid topped the list, alongside Bayern Munich with four apiece.

However, such reports failed to mention that, in fact, due to the 3rd-place playoff between Croatia and Morocco, Bayern actually still had six players involved last weekend, while Atleti had five.

But does even that tell the full story?

The fact is that we must look further into these lists rather than just counting the players.

Bayern may top the list but Kingsley Coman, Noussair Mazraoui and Josip Stanisic are not frequent Bundesliga starters, while Lucas Hernandez ruptured his ACL against Australia and his forthcoming long-term absence would have been accounted for long ago.

So that leaves just Dayot Upamecano and Benjamin Pavard who are regular Bayern starters, the latter of whom featured only in France's opening World Cup game on November 22, since when he spent the remainder of the tournament warming the bench.

With all that in mind, the World Cup suddenly feels less impactful for the Bavarian giants.

In comparison, Ligue 1 champions PSG had just three players active in the final two games in Qatar, but the level of player and importance to their club makes their involvement huge.

Achraf Hakimi (Morocco), Lionel Messi (Argentina) and Kylian Mbappe (France) are the three, with the Moroccan a regular starter as PSG's wing-back, whilst Messi and Mbappe need no introduction after collectively sweeping the World Cup, the Golden Ball and the Golden Boot between them.

Bearing in mind their potential absence, it is worth a look at PSG's opponents in their next couple of games - Strasbourg at home on December 28, followed by a visit to second-placed Lens on New Year's Day.

It is fair to assume that any sharp punters around the world have probably shared these thoughts, and this is reinforced by the fact that Strasbourg opened as high as 16/1 in the 1x2 market, and are now down to a market-best of 9/1.

In similar fashion, Lens opened at 16/5, and are now into 5/2 and will, in all likelihood, drop further still.

PSG do not usually drift in the markets, but they are doing so for these fixtures, and it would not be a major shock to see both Mbappe and Messi rested for the Strasbourg game, and they might miss the trip to Lens, too.

PSG is just one example, and this method is applicable to other scenarios. In England, for example, the EFL Cup last-16 ties take place just days after the World Cup Final, so could there be value there?

A look at the mouth-watering Manchester City vs Liverpool tie seems a worthwhile exercise, especially with the views consistently expressed by Pep Guardiola and Jurgen Klopp with regards to the Christmas schedule in England.

Both teams have played recent friendlies, with the early World Cup exits of Belgium, Germany and Uruguay allowing the likes of Kevin De Bruyne, Ilkay Gundogan and Darwin Nunez to make a quick return to action, while Mo Salah and Erling Haaland must be champing at the bit after their extended break.

It is the players from the losing quarter-finalists who pose most questions to their respective managers, who now have decisions to make concerning the fitness of their returning English, Dutch, Brazilian and Portuguese internationals.

The effect of fatigue on team performance has long since been proven, and we've seen numerous examples of European hangovers at club level, such as Thursday night Europa League matches followed by a below-par league performance the following Sunday.

If the rotations of the stronger sides following the Qatar World Cup can be predicted early, it is likely to give a very strong position within the market come matchday.