Premier League tip preview: Manchester City unlikely to slip up at inconsistent Spurs

Paul Bathurst
4 February 2023

Manchester City's Erling Haaland (second right) celebrates scoring

As Manchester City and Tottenham Hotspur square up for the second time in as many weeks, Tipstrr football expert Paul Bathurst expects another clinical performance from Premier League champions.

As the second half of the season continues, Pep Guardiola can ill afford for his side to drop points with Arsenal possessing a five-point lead over his Manchester City side.

City got it done in the FA Cup last weekend, beating the Gunners 1-0, thanks to a collector's item from defender Nathan Ake.

Guardiola opted to go strong, perhaps to set a marker for the season ahead, and his side passed the test with flying colours.

Tottenham Hotspur rested some players last weekend in their comfortable 3-0 cup win away at Championship side Preston North End.

Harry Kane, Hugo Lloris Christian Romero and Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg were all left out, leaving Heung Min Son to do the damage, and the South Korean star may feel some confidence returning after netting a brace.

New signing Arnaut Danjuma completed the scoring with a debut goal to put the icing on a good day out for Antonio Conte.

City did engage in some deadline day drama, allowing the talented Portuguese fullback, Joao Cancelo, to make a loan move to German giants Bayern Munich.

Cancelo had fallen out of favour with Guardiola since the World Cup, with many reports suggesting a training ground bust up as the reason. The defender himself denied these claims, citing his loan move was purely to obtain more minutes on the pitch.

Meanwhile, Tottenham finally completed the signing of Sporting Lisbon fullback Pedro Porro which allowed Matt Doherty to sign for Atletico Madrid in Spain.

Back on January 19, City hosted Spurs in a thriller which ended 4-2, thanks to a second half comeback that has become a trademark of the current champions.

In what was a poor first half, Spurs managed to nick a 2-0 half-time lead, courtesy of goals from Dejan Kulusevski and Emerson Royal just before the break.

The second half soon saw that lead disappear with an early strike from Julian Alvarez quickly followed by the inevitable Erling Haaland goal to level proceedings.

Riyadh Mahrez then gave City a deserved lead before sealing the game late on with a lovely dinked finish over the helpless Hugo Lloris.

City rightfully won that game in terms of attacking ambitions and territorial advantage in the final third, having created 2.30xG compared with Tottenham's mere 0.70xG.

Overall, the metrics for Tottenham are disappointing this campaign, because despite sitting fifth in the table and being undoubtedly in the race for Champions League, Conte's men rank middle of the pack for chances conceded.

The North London outfit are also outperforming their offensive xG stats, scoring 40 times from just 35xG,although with a world class striker like Harry Kane in the fold, this is not unexpected.

Manchester City, on the other hand, have created more chances than any side this season and with leading goalscorer Erling Haaland always lurking in the box, that is ominous for any opponent.

City are defensively solid, and can perhaps count themselves a little unfortunate to have conceded 20 times considering they have only given up just 16.5xG.

Looking ahead to this meeting, sad news has circulated that Spurs manager, Antonio Conte, has fallen ill and required urgent surgery, so the Italian will not be present for this fixture.

Conte is a manager who is constantly demanding more from his players during the game, a very vocal and motivational coach whose prowling input will certainly be missed on the touchline.

Phil Foden may return from an ankle injury in this one to boost Guardiola's squad, while Richarlison is likely to be back on the bench for Tottenham, having missed the FA Cup tie last weekend with a knock.

With Manchester City's desperation for all three points here, alongside the metrics of both sides, and combined with the absence of Antonio Conte, City to take the win at around 8/11 is likely to be a solid option.