League Two outright betting tips: Chesterfield, Doncaster, MK Dons and Salford in the mix

The temptation when betting is to stick all your chips on the Premier League. Punters are drawn to the top tier of English football like a moth to a flame, but it’s a risky business.

The chaos and uncertainty in League Two creates more of a level footing between bookies and punters with mispriced matches at every turn.

Naturally, there’s less attention to detail as the top dogs on both sides of the battle focus on the leagues where the most bets are placed.

That allows you to find greater value - the difference between what the odds should be and what they are - which will help you profit in the long term.

So, without further ado, let’s kick off our League Two campaign by picking out our favourites for automatic promotion and the play-offs.

Suggested bets

Milton Keynes Dons to win League Two

Salford City to be promoted

Chesterfield to finish in the top seven

Doncaster Rovers to finish in the top seven

Port Vale to finish in the top seven

 

Who will win League Two?

Using last season’s data will allow us to pinpoint the league’s biggest threats. Based on personal experience, expected goals will help you make a mockery of the League Two form book by identifying scores of big-price winners throughout the season.

Mansfield Town, Wrexham and Stockport County produced the highest xG last season and snapped up the automatic promotion spots whilst Crawley Town won the play-offs.

They left behind Salford City, Milton Keynes Dons and Bradford City, all of whom produced high xG totals across the season and make for an obvious starting point.

The Bantams failed to make the play-offs as they missed out to Crawley Town by a single point despite winning their last five matches.

Defence betrayed their attack but they’ve strengthened with the arrivals of Aden Baldwin from Notts County, and Neill Byrne, who provided suitable cover for the league’s meanest defence, Stockport.

MK Dons found themselves in the top three when Max Dean fired them ahead against Mansfield with three games to go. They collapsed after that and embarrassed themselves in the play-offs.

It’s no surprise they’ve added three centre-backs to their ranks this summer whilst also reinforcing the midfield with the arrival of Liam Kelly and Tommy Leigh.

Kelly and Leigh will help take their creative threat to a new level with both players ranking in the top 20 for key passers per match and producing a combined 14 assists.

Salford City are a curious case and they may feel like an outlandish suggestion. They won 13 of 46 matches last season and finished nine points above relegated Sutton United.

Despite that, only the promoted sides consistently produced better goalscoring chances. Karl Robinson arrived in January and led City to the majority of their points and wins.

He’s been able to shape the squad to his liking this summer, with 10 departures and more arrivals, including Cole Stockton, a striker with a 20+ goal season to his name at League One level, and Ben Woodburn, who drops down from Championship side Preston.

Chesterfield won the National League last season and we’re seeing an increasing number of teams that are capable of gaining promotion in back-to-back seasons.

Paul Cook’s side haven’t done much with their squad this summer, but they don’t need to. The Spireites won the league with 98 points and are the bookmaker’s favourites for the title.

 

Who will make the League Two play-offs?

Carlisle United, Cheltenham Town, Fleetwood Town and Port Vale were relegated from League One last season but we aren’t convinced that they’ll all compete.

Vale may stand the best chance having added some quality players in the summer and allowing Darren Moore to remain in post after a dire run of results after taking over in February.

It was a sinking ship before that and history suggests Moore is a class above League Two. He’ll need to tighten the defence up but he’s recruited well and is capable of doing so.

In attack, Vale have added Ruari Paton, Jayden Stockley and Lorent Tolaj, all of whom are capable of 15+ goals at this level.

Doncaster Rovers were the country’s form team at the tail end of last season. Something suddenly clicked under Grant McCann and they should be confident of kicking on earlier this campaign.

Gillingham and Notts County are also being shown plenty of respect by the bookmakers but we aren’t as convinced. The Magpies didn’t take to League Two as we expected and Macauley Langstaff’s departure is a blow.

The Gills were expected to do well last season but it never happened. Connor Mahoney was their top goalscorer with seven goals, closely followed by two defenders, and it’s hard to see what’s changed.

 

READ MORE: League One outright betting tips: Can anyone stop Birmingham City and who will make the play-offs?