Does the strength of a Premier League club’s subs bench reflect their chances of top-flight success?

Paul Okey
25 May 2022

It’s clearly an advantage when your substitutes bench is worth more than your opponent’s starting XI but does that translate into points across the season? Planet Sport crunches the numbers.

Manchester City's three substitutions against Aston Villa made all the difference on Sunday, with Raheem Sterling, Oleksandr Zinchenko and Ilkay Gundogan, in particular, all contributing in their 3-2 win.

The game-changing trio have a combined value of just over £130million according to Transfermarkt, underlining the wealth of resources available to Pep Guardiola.

Title rivals Liverpool, meanwhile, introduced Mohamed Salah, Roberto Firmino and James Milner in their victory over Wolves, a trio Transfermarkt value at £126million.

Meanwhile rock-bottom Norwich, in a bid to limit the damage against Tottenham, brought on Christoph Zimmermann, Lukas Rupp and Tony Springett, who would set you back less than £3million.

But does the strength of a club's bench accurately reflect their chances of Premier League success?

Planet Sport have added up the market value of the three most used substitutes for each top-flight team, put them in order and compared it to their finishing position.

It makes for interesting reading.

Note: When more than one player has made the same number of appearances for the third position, an average of their values was taken.

20. Norwich City - £7.02m

Three most used substitutes: Jonathan Rowe (13 appearances, no market value), Lukas Rupp (12 apps, £1.63m), Adam Idah (11 apps, £2.7m), Christian Tzolis (11 apps, £8.1m)

The Canaries' most used substitutes had a combined value of just over £7million, with 19-year-old Jonathan Rowe yet to be assigned a price tag.

Not surprisingly, Dean Smith's side finished bottom of the Premier League.

Incidentally, their two most subbed off players, Josh Sargent and Milot Rashica are said to be worth £7.2million each.

19. Burnley - £7.2m

Three most used substitutes: Matej Vydra (17 apps, £2.7m), Jay Rodriguez (16 apps, £2.7m), Ashley Barnes (15 apps, £1.8m)

Relegated on the final day, the Clarets went to Vydra the most often when they needed an option from the bench. However, he delivered just one goal as a substitute to add to the goal he scored when starting against Chelsea in November.

18. Brentford - £14.4m

Three most used substitutes: Yoane Wissa (18 apps, £9m), Shandon Baptiste (13 apps, £2.7m), Saman Ghoddos (13 apps, £2.7m)

The Bees exceeded expectations in their first season in the Premier League, especially considering the paucity of options on the sidelines.

Yoanne Wissa was Thomas Frank's go-to player from the bench and scored three times in his 18 substitute appearances.

17. Leeds United - £18.3m

Three most used substitutes: Tyler Roberts (16 apps, £7.2m), Joe Gelhardt (15 apps, £4.5m), Jamie Shackleton (7 apps, £2.7m), Mateusz Klich (7 apps, £8.6m), Pascal Struijk (7 apps, £13.5m)

The 17th-best team in the Premier League were also the team with the 17th most expensive substitutes.

However, you can't put a price on Struijk's dramatic equaliser against Brighton in their penultimate game of the season.

16. Watford - £19.8m

Three most used substitutes: Cucho Hernandez (14 apps, £8.1m), Joao Pedro (13 apps, £9m), Ken Sema (11 apps, £2.7m)

Poor old Cucho Hernandez, he made 25 appearances for the Hornets in 2021/22 but only managed to get through a full game five times. Fourteen times he was introduced from the bench, while of his 11 starts, six of them saw him pulled before the end.

That he still managed to be the Hornets' second-top scorer with five perhaps tells you why they will be playing Championship football next season.

15. Newcastle - £28.35m

Three most used substitutes: Jacob Murphy (20 apps, £3.6m), Miguel Almiron (11 apps, £14.4m), Sean Longstaff (9 apps, £11.7m), Ryan Fraser (9 apps, £10.35m)

Murphy was the second most used substitute in the Premier League behind Steven Bergwijn at Tottenham but failed to add to a goal against West Ham in the opening game of the campaign - scored when starting.

Newcastle won't be this low down the list at the end of next season, that's for sure.

14. Southampton - £30.06m

Three most used substitutes: Ibrahimo Diallo (13 apps, £10.8m), Armando Broja (11 apps, £16.2m), Stuart Armstrong (10 apps, £5.4m), Shane Long (10 apps, £0.72m)

There will be changes at Southampton too next season, with Broja returning to parent club Chelsea and Shane Long out of contract in the summer. Diallo is not certain to be at St Mary's next season, either, after struggling for game-time under Ralph Hasenhuttl.

12= Crystal Palace - £33.3m

Three most used substitutes: Christian Benteke (14 apps, £6.3m), Michael Olise (14 apps, £19.8m), Jeffrey Schlupp (12 apps, £7.2m)

Twelfth in the Premier League and 12th on our countdown, Palace again looked to Christian Benteke for an impact from the bench. Fourteen of his 25 appearances came as a replacement, although that is still down on the 2016/17 season which saw the Belgian introduced from the bench 15 times for Liverpool.

12= Brighton - £33.3m

Three most used substitutes: Tariq Lamptey (14 apps, £16.2m), Solly March (14 apps, £8.1m), Alexis Mac Allster (11 apps, £9m)

Subbed on 14 times, subbed off nine times, Lamptey was either the player to make a difference or the player whose influence on the game was waning.

Mac Allister did score a goal from the bench in the opening-day win over Burnley and again in the 4-1 defeat to Manchester City, while March was either on the bench or starting 37 of Brighton's 38 Premier League games.

11. West Ham £34.65m

Three most used substitutes: Andriy Yarmolenko (18 apps, £3.15m), Nikola Vlasic (13 apps, £22.5m), Manuel Lanzini (11 apps, £9m)

Yarmolenko made 18 appearances from the bench yet only amassed a total of 299 minutes across the season, with five of his appearances spanning just a minute. He's on his way in the summer but he can look back on one of the most memorable goals of the season.

Yarmolenko’s Goal with Titanic music 🇺🇦❤️ pic.twitter.com/GjW6WYCAwD
— Luke Maldeni (@lukemaldeni) March 13, 2022

10. Everton - £37.8m

Three most used substitutes: Salomon Rondon (12 apps, £3.6m), Dele Alli (10 apps, £19.8m), Anthony Gordon (10 apps, £14.4m)

Dele Alli only joined Everton at the end of the January transfer window but still managed to amass the second highest number of substitute appearances for the club.

Still, if you have an England player who can't force his way into the starting XI, the rest of your team must be pretty decent, right? Er...

9. Leicester - £45.9m

Three most used substitutes: Kelechi Iheanacho (13 apps, £18m), Patson Daka (10 apps, £19.8m), Ademola Lookman (10 apps, £8.1m)

Leicester finished a point above ninth so the value of their three most-used subs in another which is a good guide to their league position.

Iheanacho scored twice from the bench, while Daka was brought on to score once. However, despite five goals in the Europa League for Daka, neither striker looks like taking the goalscoring burden off Jamie Vardy who again topped the charts for the Foxes with 15 league goals.

8. Liverpool - £46.8m

Three most used substitutes: James Milner (15 apps, £1.8m), Roberto Firmino (10 apps, £34.2m), Takumi Minamino (10 apps, £46.8m)

Despite the luxury of being able to introduce Mohamed Salah and Firmino at the weekend, Liverpool are a relatively lowly eighth when it comes to the average cost of their most used three subs over the course of the season.

That is because the average is brought down by James Milner, with the dependable workhorse now 36 and thus valued accordingly. His value to Jurgen Klopp is so much more than that, however, with Milner able to do a job in most positions across the park.

He's yet to play in goal for the Reds, though, but we wouldn't put it past him.

7. Tottenham - £49.5m

Three most used substitutes: Steven Bergwijn (21 apps, £16.2m), Lucas Moura (15 apps, £18m), Harry Winks (£10 apps, £15.3m)

Tottenham boss Antonio Conte claims the club are some way behind their top-four rivals when it comes to the depth of their squad and that is reflected in the value of their bench.

Bergwijn, Moura and Winks are dependable options and Bergwijn did provide a stunning 11-minute two-goal cameo in their win against Leicester in January. He was rewarded with a start in the following game against Chelsea.

However, the fact that he has not been trusted to start a game since, racking up 15 more substitute appearances, shows there is still something of a gulf between Conte's starters and options from the bench.

6. Wolves - £55.8

Three most used substitutes: Fabio Silva (16 apps, £16.2m), Trincao (12 apps, £19.8m), Daniel Podence (11 apps, £19.8m)

Silva is still young but Wolves have every right to expect something more from the £80,000 a week Portuguese who failed to produce a goal or an assist in 2021/22.

It is reflected in his market value, with the 19-year-old having been rated at £22.5million when the season kicked off. Not that many Wolves players did themselves many favours in the closing stages of the campaign as they took just two points from a possible 21.

5. Aston Villa - £59.4

Three most used substitutes: Ashley Young (14 apps, £0.9m), Emi Buendia (13 apps, £31.5m), Leon Bailey (11 apps, £27m)

A trio that would have them pushing for the Champions League on market value alone, Villa finished a full nine places below their position in this table.

Bailey proved the biggest disappointment of Villa's summer additions, but with Steve Gerrard already bringing in reinforcements, we only expect the Villa bench to get even stronger - and more costly. Tyrone Mings would add £28.8millon for a start.

4. Arsenal - £72m

Three most used substitutes: Nicolas Pepe (15 apps, £27m), Eddie Nketiah (13 apps, £9m), Emile Smith Rowe (12 apps, £36m)

Fourth in our table but an agonising fifth in the league having looked for so long like they were going to bag the final Champions League spot.

Arsenal's relative youth, they fielded the youngest side in the top flight, meant Mikel Arteta had to use his substitutes wisely.

Bukayo Saka for instance, featured in every single match but was hooked 20 times, the second most in the division behind West Ham's Said Benrahma.

3. Manchester City - £88.8m

Three most used substitutes: Riyad Mahrez (13 apps, £36m), Fernandinho (9 apps, £1.8m), Ilkay Gundogan (7 apps, £31.5m), Raheem Sterling (7 apps, £76.5m), (Gabriel Jesus 7 apps, £45m)

Similar to Liverpool, the average cost of Man City's bench is dragged down by the age of Fernandinho who bowed out in the best way possible as City wrapped up the title on the final day.

Sterling's value alone, however, is more than the combined cost of 17 of the Premier League teams' three most used subs.

2. Chelsea - £131.1m

Three most used substitutes: Ruben Loftus-Cheek (11 apps, £18m), Romelu Lukaku (10 apps, £76.5m), Mateo Kovacic (9 apps, £40.5m), Christian Pulisic (9 apps, £40.5m), Hakim Ziyech (9 apps, £28.8m)

This is where the figures start to get a little crazy. Chelsea shelled out close to £100million for Romelu Lukaku in the summer only to put him on the bench nearly as many times as they started him. The Belgian only made 16 starts and was named among the substitutes 13 times, coming on in ten of those games.

That they also have Kai Havertz (£63m) and Timo Werner (£37.8m) on seven and six substitute appearances, respectively, meaning the Blues should be one of the biggest beneficiaries of next season's switch to five permitted substitutes.

1. Manchester United - £153m

Three most used substitutes: Jesse Lingard (14 apps, £18m), Marcus Rashford (12 apps, £63m), Jadon Sancho (9 apps, £72m)

Maybe the depth of a club's bench doesn't mean anything after all. United are way clear when it comes to the market value of their three most-used substitutes yet finished a massive 35 points behind Premier League champions Manchester United.

Rashford only scored four goals this season but all came from the bench, while both Lingard's Premier League goals came as a substitute (he only made one start).

Sancho, meanwhile, scored two of his three goals and provided all three of his assists in a six-game purple patch that ran between February and March.

Rediscovering the player who scored 16 goals and provided 20 assists for Borussia Dortmund the previous season will be one of Erik ten Hag's first tasks.