World Matchplay tips: Smith and Dobey to thrill, Noppert to upset Aspinall
- George Dempsey
- 18 July 2023
Michael Smith and Chris Dobey are likely to play out a thriller at Winter Gardens while Danny Noppert can upset Nathan Aspinall.
The World Matchplay continues on Tuesday evening with a tantalising quartet of tungsten-flinging action.
Here we focus on one of the tournament favourites, Michael Smith, and his match against 'Hollywood' Chris Dobey.
Michael Smith vs Chris Dobey
We already have some pennies riding on this one as we've tipped Michael Smith to win the quarter. That price is still lingering ahead of tonight's second-round match.
Dobey is sure to be a tough test and he has beaten Smith in three of four meetings since 2023 began.
His average has also been marginally better, but his checkout percentage has failed him at times.
Smith's sloppy performance didn't stop him from breezing past Steve Beaton and it should provide a friendly kick up the backside.
Dobey is more than capable of making a game of this and it could to-and-fro. As is often the case at the top, they should bring the best out of each other.
Given that the second round is now first to 11, it's reasonable to expect this game to have at least 18 legs to offer, maybe more if they match each other stride for stride.
That gives them ample time to reign down on the red bit and between them, they average around 0.70 180s per leg in 2023, so our bet is on there being at least 13 maximums.
Suggested bet:
Over 12.5 180s scored
Danny Noppert vs Nathan Aspinall
Someone has to be odds-on in a two-horse racing and the bookies have favoured Nathan Aspinall.
You could pick holes in the favourite and make a case for the underdog whichever way the odds fell in this one.
The pair have won two games apiece in their meetings so far this year with Aspinall holding a 9-6 lead in the head to heads.
You'd certainly expect The Asp to dominate in terms of 180s but Noppert will chip away at his score with the 140s and hang around.
His checkout percentage in 2023 to date is almost 4% better than Aspinall and there's little doubt he will punish him if given the chance.
Neither were massively convincing in their first game and both were made to work for it. They could easily match each other blow for blow here.
It feels like a bit of a toss of a coin and that makes 5/4 on the underdog Noppert feel like a slice of value worth nibbling at.
Suggested bet:
Danny Noppert to win
