Turkey vs Wales tips: Desperate Dragons to earn a valuable point
- George Dempsey
- 18 June 2023
Group leaders Turkey play host to Wales at Samsun Yeni 19 Mayis Stadyumu in a Euro 2024 qualifier on Monday evening.
Date, KO time and TV coverage
Euro 2024 qualifier, Monday June 17, Kick-off 7:45pm, live on S4C & Viaplay Sports 2
Predicted score
Turkey 1-1 Wales
Suggested bets
Wales double chance
Key stats
Turkey haven't kept a clean sheet in their last seven matches and have conceded seven goals in their last five.
Only Italy and Croatia have beaten Turkey in their previous 18 matches on home soil.
Wales are winless in their last five away matches, but they did pick up a point away to Croatia in matchday one.
Wales have scored in their previous eight away matches and have drawn the last two 1-1.
Wales team news
The major decision awaiting Rob Page is who to start up top. Keifer Moore is suspended after his red card against Armenia.
The squad is short on capped forwards so Tom Bradshaw looks an obvious choice, although Brennan Johnson could be relocated from out wide.
Dan James is familiar with a central role having played it under Marcelo Bielsa at Leeds, but they may want a more physical option.
David Brooks made his long-awaited return from successful cancer treatment and depending on team selection, a spot could open up for his first start since 2021.
Turkey vs Wales verdict
Turkey top the group after recording narrow victories over Latvia, 3-2, and Armenia, 2-1, while Wales sit third on four points.
The visitors would have fully expected to arrive in Turkey as the group leaders, but a shock 4-2 home defeat to Armenia has left them reeling.
In terms of how that affects the standings, the disappointing defeat undoes a lot of the good work they did in Croatia, who are now back in control.
However, a win in Samsun blows the group wide open and it isn't beyond them, having beaten their opponents 2-0 the last time they met.
The hosts only top the group because of wins against Latvia and Armenia, but their home form has been pretty strong in recent years.
Only Italy and Croatia have beaten them in their previous 17 home matches in all competitions.
In our opinion, Wales were extremely hard done by on Friday. While they'd want to dominate against a team ranked 97th in the world, there was an air of misfortune.
Wales created by far the higher quality goalscoring chances on the night and the raw data suggests a 3-1 win for the hosts was possible.
Lionel Messi would have been proud of the quality of finishes from Lucas Zelarayan, while Grant-Leon Ranos' second was outrageous.
There's no need to panic for Wales. We think they're more than capable of an upset here, but they'd also settle for a point.
