MLS betting tips: Bet on New York Red Bulls to add to Inter Miami woes
- George Dempsey
- 31 May 2023
We’re off to the Magic City for Saturday’s best-value MLS bet, where Inter Miami will play host to New York Red Bulls at DRV PNK Stadium.
Newly appointed Troy Lesesne will take his New York Red Bulls side on the road to face Phil Neville's Inter Miami on Wednesday. George has broken down the numbers behind the form and thinks they could pick up their first away win of the MLS season.
Suggested bets
Inter Miami vs New York Red Bulls verdict
Inter Miami tend to spend the season flip-flopping between the good and the bad. Right now, they're flopping. Phil Neville's men have lost three straight to Nashville SC, Orlando City and Montreal.
Their sequences this season read won two, lost six, won three, lost three. This is one of the oldest starting XIs in the league, so at this point, it's fair to question Neville's ability to make meaningful change.
The Red Bulls have made a slow start so on paper, this is a nice fixture for both teams. Dig a little bit deeper, and these teams are not producing anything alike.
Troy Lesesne has been in charge since May 8th and picked up two wins, a draw and a narrow loss in Seattle. Even under Gerhard Struber, they'd avoided defeat in seven of 11.
His downfall was a lack of victories but the numbers say there were unfortunate. No team has a lower xG against at home in the MLS than the Red Bulls, who are one of the few teams to have a positive xG value on their travels.
The style wasn't thrilling, but the underlying numbers suggest the plug was pulled too soon. Two wins in three can be attributed to the new manager bounce, but they were going the right way to win games, anyway.
Inter Miami aren't. Expected goals suggest they should have conceded 9.9 goals at home thus far, and they've allowed nine. That's on the money.
They've scored 11, but the numbers tell us you'd typically expect seven goals from the quality of chances they're creating. They've overperformed.
The visitors have had an incredibly tough schedule on the road so far and they've been in every game. They should have won some of them.
Cristian Casseres Jnr, John Tolkin and Luiquinhas are laying on 5.1 key passes per game, yet have just five assists to their name all season.
Conversely, Inter's most dangerous trio is Jean More and Rodolfo Pizarro, producing 2.8 key passes per game. Both of those players are unavailable due to injury. They could also be without Sergii Kryvtsov, an ever-present in the heart of the defence.
Our projections say there's an 80% chance Phil Neville's side score one or fewer goals, with a 79% chance the Red Bulls score at least once. The three most probable scorelines are 1-0 New York, 2-0 New York and 1-1.
The Red Bulls are favourites to win this game, but George firmly believes the price should be closer to odds on, thus representing a good value. If you want to play it safer, you can use the draw no bet market.
