Chelsea v Tottenham: Prediction, tips and bet builder as Spurs snatch victory

On paper this always looks like a juicy fixture, especially midweek. But there's something about this match that smells off.

For a start it's on a Thursday and however much it's dressed up, Premier League matches on a Thursday are just wrong. Give us a bit of a break before the weekend please, fixture people.

Then we have two teams struggling for form and desperate to end the season with a late charge to paper over the cracks.

Tottenham in the league are a spent force, it’s unlikely they’ll finish in the top ten and their focus should be very much on Europe.

Chelsea still have hopes of Champions League football next season, and really should have nailed that down weeks ago, but they went off the boil in January and February and are only just starting to wake up.

The Blues have won two of five in the league, but let’s be honest, against already relegated teams in Southampton and Leicester City.

Meanwhile, Ange Postecoglou’s record against Chelsea doesn’t make for pretty reading. The Aussie has lost all three meetings with the Blues, conceding 10 goals in the process.

This could be a very ordinary match, but can we find you a bet builder that brings in a bit of cash?

 

Chelsea v Tottenham bet builder

Tottenham win - 7/2

Over 2.5 goals

Over 2.5 cards

Caicedo to be fouled 2+ times

 

Tottenham win

Injuries have derailed Tottenham’s chances of making a real fist of this season, yet they were able to field almost their strongest side when surrendering a 2-0 lead to lose to Chelsea in the reverse fixture.

The Blues come into this having won just two of five in the league and Spurs haven’t fared much better, winless in three before the international break and losing eight of 14 on their travels this season.

But since then Tottenham have had a fresh injection of talent, with most of the injured big name players, the ones Postecoglou has been moaning about being absent, now back in action.

Spurs have produced emphatic wins away to Man United, Man City and Brentford this season, and it feels like they could pull off another one here, and are much better value than Chelsea for the win.

Tottenham have also won more matches on their travels than at home this season, taking maximum points in 36% of away trips compared to 33% of home dates.

Even though Chelsea are on a three-match win streak in this fixture, we think Tottenham might edge it.

 

Over 2.5 goals

Chelsea’s home games are averaging 3.03xG per game this season, which is identical to the 3.03xG Spurs are averaging in away games.

Two of the last three games saw over 4.5 goals land, but as Chelsea have gone a bit boring recently we’ll play safe and go with over 2.5 goals.

 

Over 2.5 cards

It will be the first time Craig Pawson has refereed Chelsea this season, but he did oversee Spurs’ 4-1 win at home to Aston Villa recently.

Pawson is averaging 4.12 yellow cards per game, 0.18 red cards and has awarded five penalties in 22 contests.

As it’s a London derby under the lights, we are expecting some rough and tumble and that will mean some cards.

 

Caicedo to be fouled 2+ times

Staying with fouls, your eyes will be instantly drawn to Chelsea’s Moises Caicedo, but he’s no value betting on him to commit them.

Where you will get better odds is Caicedo to be fouled. He’s drawn ten fouls in the last three games, perhaps it’s some old skool revenge going on.

 

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