MLS betting tips: The best bet for every game in MLS this weekend
- George Dempsey
- 14 July 2023
We’ve used expected goal data to bring you the best bet for every match in Major League Soccer this weekend.
This weekend's round of MLS fixtures provides an important opportunity for the teams to finish strong before embarking on a month-long break for the Leagues Cup.
We've analysed every single game to bring you the best bet for every single match.
Sure, they won't all win, and we don't advise backing them all in an accumulator! But they're a reliable pointer in the right direction.
MLS betting tips
Atlanta vs Orlando: Over 2.5 goals
Montreal vs Charlotte: Montreal to win
Philadelphia vs NYCFC: Philadelphia to win
Cincinnati vs Nashville: Under 2.5 goals
New England vs DC: Both teams to score
Chicago vs Toronto: Chicago to win
St Louis vs Inter Miami: St Louis City SC to win
Minnesota vs LAFC: Over 2.5 goals
Colorado vs Houston: Houston +0.5
Real Salt Lake vs New York RB: New York RB +0.5
Austin vs Sporting KC: Over 2.5 goals
Portland vs Columbus: Columbus +0.5
Seattle vs FC Dallas: Under 2.5 goals
Vancouver vs LA Galaxy: Over 2.5 goals
MLS Matchday 26 preview
We kick off proceedings with a quintet of early games in the Eastern Conference. The numbers suggest a home win is the likeliest outcome in each game, but watch out for Orlando and DC.
It's a rare opportunity to back Montreal and New England around even money at home and given the lowest price belongs to Philadelphia at 17/20, you could back all five and make money with three wins.
The strongest bet on the board is over 2.5 goals between Atlanta and Orlando City. Our projections suggest 3.8 goals, so over 3.5 might be a value option.
The most resounding result of the evening is expected to be St Louis City beating Inter Miami. The visitors are improving, but it's slow progress and City are on fire.
We were only able to identify two road teams that could leave with all three points. New York Red Bulls should be the bookies' favourite to win based on expected goals. They're good value at 3/1.
Elsewhere, Los Angeles FC could win in Minnesota based on the distribution of goals so far this season. However, the Loons are improving in attack and it's hard to know what to make of LA anymore.
There are several tough-to-call middling fixtures, such as Colorado against Houston Dynamo, before the round the evening off in Cascadia, as Seattle host Dallas and Vancouver meet LA Galaxy.
The availability of key players who were previously on US international duty will be key, so check the team news, but it could be a tight one with a slight lean towards the hosts.
However, goals should be a given in Vancouver with the hosts free-scoring and the Galaxy in their best form for some time.
