League Two play-off betting tips: Salford City vs Stockport County
- George Dempsey
- 12 May 2023
Salford City will host Stockport County at Peninsula Stadium on Saturday evening in the first leg of the semi-finals of the League Two play-offs.
Stockport finished the season in fourth, three places and four points better off than Salford.
Date, KO time and TV coverage
League Two play-off semi-finals first leg, Saturday May 13, Kick-off 7:45pm, live on Sky Sports Main Event
Predicted score
Suggested betting tips
Stockport County to win to nil
Stockport County to win
Under 2.5 goals
Key stats
Despite winning the same number of games, Stockport narrowly missed out on automatic promotion on the final day, while Salford were fortunate to make the play-offs by one goal.
Salford City have a better record on their travels than they do at home. They have failed to win 13 of their 23 home league matches.
Salford City were the only side to win more matches away from home (12) than Stockport County this season (11).
Stockport won 2-0 at this stadium earlier in the season before drawing 1-1 at home.
Verdict
Play-off games are typically seen as low-scoring affairs that swing the way of the home side more often than not. However, that's not the case in every league and League Two is the best example of that.
Dating back to the 2011 League Two play-offs, the away side is unbeaten in 26 of 48 matches, meaning they have avoided defeat 54% of the time. Despite this, the home side has been the favourite to win 95% of the time.
Salford's record on their travels is much better than their record at home, while Stockport look very comfortable wherever they play. Salford have failed to win 13 of 23 home matches.
Conversely, County have won 11 matches on their travels and avoided defeat in 16 of 23 matches. Only Salford (12) have won more away matches in League Two this season.
It's unusual to see the away side favoured in the League Two play-offs, which we think speaks volumes about what the expectation for this tie is. It's going to be a struggle for the home side.
The visitors have found the net in 19 of their League Two away matches and they have scored at least twice in eight of their 11 victories.
When Salford lose at home, they tend to draw a blank. Six of the eight sides to beat Neil Wood's men at the Peninsula this season have kept a clean sheet.
Beyond that, five of the six visiting teams to beat them in the 2021/22 season did so without conceding a goal.
County have won four of their last six away matches without conceding, so we're going to advise backing them to record another 2-0 victory over the Ammies.
