Euro 2024: England vs Slovenia tips and predictions - Three Lions adjustments pay dividends in win to nil
- George Dempsey
- 24 June 2024
England have come under heavy fire from critics but we’re expecting a routine win to nil when a changed side take on Slovenia in Cologne on Tuesday (2000 BST).
England face Slovenia on Tuesday night knowing that anything other than a win could leave the door open for Denmark to win Group C.
The Three Lions haul of four points will be enough to secure a spot in the Round of 16, though doing so by finishing second could set up a premature meeting with Germany.
It’s hard to know what to expect here. The below-par performances were enough to beat Serbia and hold the Danes, and England in third gear could also beat Slovenia.
Gareth Southgate’s substitutions seem to be an admission that Trent Alexander-Arnold in midfield isn’t working, and it’s questionable if Phil Foden on the left is, either.
One option is a straight swap for Conor Gallagher to inject energy, although we’d prefer to see Jude Bellingham at 10 and Foden at eight with a proper winger stretching the backline.
On the other hand, Slovenia don’t need to change anything. Matjaz Kek’s side has secured two commendable draws so far and need at least a point against England to progress.
Planet Sport Bet Special: Bet £10 on England vs Slovenia and if both teams score in the first half, get a £5 free bet
Their chances may depend on how Southgate’s side set up, but either way, it’s worth noting they’ve been a tricky opponent in the past.
Harry Kane bagged a 90th-minute winner in a 1-0 win when the sides last met. Before that, England were held to a 0-0 draw on the road and needed an 86th-minute Wayne Rooney goal in the 2015 qualifiers.
We also have to respect that their form at the tournament is no fluke. Their only defeat in 14 matches came against Denmark, while they beat Portugal 2-0 and the USA 1-0.
Across 180 minutes of football, the Slovenians have surrendered 65% of possession. If England fix their midfield problems, they should have at least that and create clear chances.
They’ll still need to be on their toes to avoid yet despite an alarming lack of control in matches, Denmark, like Serbia, didn’t create a clear-cut chance until the 84th minute.
England’s individual quality in defence has shone through, particularly Marc Geuhi, so a better midfield performance could allow for a comfortable clean sheet.
Team news
Gareth Southgate has some big decisions to make. Connor Gallagher, Joe Gomez, Luke Shaw and Anthony Gordon are all options for a much-needed reshuffle.
Jude Bellingham, Declan Rice, Bukayo Saka and Harry Kane are certain to keep their place.
Geuhi has looked solid alongside the experienced John Stones in the defence and will play again.
Slovenia are likely to be unchanged from the side that drew 1-1 with Serbia and Denmark.
Benjamin Sesko is yet to score in Germany but remains the major goal threat.
Key stats
- England have allowed their opponents one big chance through two matches
- England’s last group-stage loss at the Euros was against France in 2004
- Slovenia are unbeaten in eight matches, including a win over Portugal
- However, Slovenia have never beaten England in six meetings
