EFL value betting tips: Expected goals show Railwaymen are a good bet to continue perfect January

Saturday’s fixtures saw the model behind our EFL value betting tips go from strength to strength.

Building on the rather outlandish suggestion that Leyton Orient would win away to Portsmouth the previous week, the EFL Tipster did it again with another big winner.

Crewe (Draw no bet) ended Barrow’s unbeaten home run at 9/4 (3.25) while Portsmouth also made light work of Fleetwood at 4/5 (1.80).

This week’s bets come from Leicester vs Ipswich, MK Dons vs AFC Wimbledon, Leeds vs Norwich, Oxford vs Barnsley and Morecambe vs Crewe.

You can also read our preview of Leicester taking on Ipswich.

The system has lined up five more top tips for Monday and Tuesday, all priced at bigger odds than they should be, and today’s preview brings you the pick of the bunch.

 

Suggested bets

Leicester City to beat Ipswich Town

Crewe Alexandra to beat Morecambe

 

Morecambe vs Crewe Alexandra

Not only did Crewe end Barrow’s unbeaten home run, they came from behind in the chilly confines of the Lake District on a bit of a cow patch of a pitch.

Despite only taking 13 shots at goal, Crewe continued in the rich vein of form that saw us brandish them as the most clinical team in the league in our last preview.

The Railwaymen managed to create six big chances for an xG of 3.10 which matched their tally of three goals.

Opponents Morecambe pulled off an upset that we didn’t see coming. We adjudged the prices to be close enough for their trip to MK Dons.

It was a performance that will be given plaudits for being one of those solid away performances where you dig in and strike late, but they should have lost.

A more clinical team would have led 2-0 inside 45 minutes and taken the game away from them, while both goals were extremely poor from the Dons' point of view.

I’m sure they’ll be full of belief on the back of that result plus the draw with Mansfield, but they’re a midtable side because they don’t produce anything with consistency.

In other words, it would be typical of them to let themselves down on the back of it.]

The win was just their second in 12 matches. During that span, they beat Doncaster 5-0 but also lost 5-0 to Notts County and 6-0 to Wrexham.

We should note they’ve only lost two matches at home this season, but hey, Barrow hadn’t lost any.

Similarly to the logic behind that bet, Morecambe is by far the least creative home team in the league and their defensive numbers hover around the mean.

They probably shouldn’t be causing good teams as many problems as they do and that could level out in the second half of the season.

Crewe are top of the form table and although they’re only marginal favourites, we’ve priced them at 6/5 (2.20) on so there’s some value to be had in the current price of 8/5 (2.60).

• Follow EFL Tipster on Tipstrr for full coverage of the 2023/24 EFL season