Aston Villa vs Brighton tips: Back the hosts to secure their place in the Europa Conference League
- George Dempsey
- 27 May 2023
Aston Villa can guarantee themselves a place in the Europa Conference League if they beat Brighton & Hove Albion at Villa Park on Sunday.
Seventh-placed Villa are just one point ahead of Tottenham and need to ensure Spurs don't get a better result than them this weekend.
Date, KO time and TV coverage
Premier League, Sunday May 28, Kick-off 4:30pm, live on Sky Sports Football
Predicted score
Suggested bets
Aston Villa to win
Over 2.5 goals
Both teams to score
Key stats
Aston Villa have scored in 13 consecutive home matches and have averaged 1.82 goals per home game this season.
Aston Villa have scored at least two goals in 16 of their last 19 Premier League home wins.
Brighton have found the net in their last 13 Premier League away matches, averaging two goals per game on the road this season.
Brighton have scored 34 goals on their travels while conceding 30. Only Leicester and Tottenham's away matches have featured more goals on average.
Aston Villa vs Brighton team news
Philippe Coutinho (muscle), Jed Steer (calf) and Alex Moreno (thigh) are confirmed absentees for Aston Villa. Calum Chambers (illness) and Diego Carlos (knock) are hoping to recover in time.
Solly March (thigh), Tariq Lamptey (knee) and Robert Sanchez (personal decision) will be unavailable for Brighton.
Roberto De Zerbi's side have several questionable players. Adam Lallana (thigh), Jakub Moder (knee) and Jeremy Sarmiento (ankle) are all hoping to feature in the final game of the season but their status is unknown.
Verdict
Aston Villa sit seventh in the Premier League table on 58 points, just one point and place ahead of Tottenham Hotspur. The hosts need a win to make sure of a Europa Conference League spot.
Unai Emery's men will have one eye on Tottenham's performance at Elland Road. If Spurs can't beat Leeds United then a maximum of one point will be required for Villa.
Brighton secured their spot in the Europa League qualifiers with an impressive performance against Man City on Wednesday. Albion fired 20 shots at Stefan Ortega, the most City have faced this season.
Roberto de Zerbi's men produced an xG of 2.37 and had two goals ruled out in a thrilling 1-1 draw against the champions. Erling Haaland was also debatably denied a late winner.
Aston Villa's 1-1 draw at Anfield last week may prove the perfect warm-up. They enjoyed just 34% possession but created better chances than Liverpool, with Ollie Watkins missing an early penalty.
Brighton's away form has been hit-and-miss. Their away record reads eight wins, four draws and six losses.
Their risk-ladened style has led to a poor defensive record on their travels. Albion have managed to score in all but one away game, averaging two goals per game on the road, but they've also allowed the opposition to net 30 times.
Both teams scoring does seem an obvious starting point for this game, but it's worth noting Villa have kept a clean sheet in five of their six-match home winning streak.
Most notably, Eddie Howe's Newcastle United were beaten 3-0 at Villa Park. Brentford were humbled 4-0 here earlier in the season and Villa have only conceded seven times in 14 Premier League matches.
Given what's on the line for the hosts, we have to advise betting on Aston Villa to win the game. Admittedly, it feels like a toss-up as to what sort of scoreline we see, but Villa should be happy to let Brighton control possession and with that comes risk for both sides.
Villa have scored in 13 straight home matches, a record equalled by Brighton on their travels. Motivation should win the day but the hosts might need to score more than once, so we'll take a chance on over 2.5 goals.
