Doncaster top tip: Trends suggest Inquisitively is ready to ask questions of firm favourite

14.25 Doncaster Carlsberg Danish Pilsner Flying Childers Stakes (5 furlongs)

It wasn’t to be for our outsider pick on the opening day of the St. Leger Festival and small field sizes on Friday mean that I have another two-year-old race to analyse here. 

As a rule I tend to avoid betting in juvenile races such as this, especially in sprints, as they can be something of a lottery.

If you can imagine a large number of toddlers trying to run 100 metres and then attempting to bet on the outcome in advance, then you get the picture of the task in hand here.

Planet Sport Bet: Bet £20+ cash on any runner in the race and if Valiant Force finishes in the first 3 places, get a £5 Free Bet!

Anyway, I have used the following trends to reduce the field numbers:

• 17/19 – Had raced in the last 4 weeks
• 16/19 – Drawn in stall 7 or lower
• 15/19 – Had won at Listed or Group class
• 14/19 – Placed horses from stall 2 or 3
• 14/19 – Won 1-2 times before
• 14/19 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
• 13/19 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
• 10/19 – Placed favourites
•   7/19 – Winning favourites
•   7/19 – Ran at York last time out
•   7/19 – Foaled in April
•   6/19 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
•   6/19 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
•   6/19 – Won last time out
•   1/19 – Irish-trained winners
•   1/19 – Winners from stall 1

After applying the trends, I was left with a shortlist of three runners: Inquisitively, Kylian and Valiant Force.

Suggested bet: Inquisitively in the 14:25 at Doncaster

Inquisitively has only had three runs including two at Listed level, one of which he won on soft going at York. 

The ground at Doncaster is soft and with William Buick, who won on Inquisitively at York, back on board here he must have a good chance.

Kylian has Ryan Moore on board for an in-form stable and Kylian has been described as a slow developer, who is open to improvement, after being beaten easily in his last start and he has yet to encounter soft going. 

Looking at Kylian’s breeding his sire was a fast-ground horse, but his dam won once on soft going, so there is some chance that he will handle the going.

Valiant Force memorably won the Norfolk Stakes (Group 2) at 150/1 but his stable was quietly confident of him running a big race there. 

He then disappointed over six furlongs in a swamp at Deauville, for which he can be forgiven, and I think he is more likely to handle the conditions than Kylian. 

Valiant Force is equal-top-rated on official ratings with Big Evs and can go close having been dropped back to five furlongs.

An interesting renewal of the Flying Childers with a few unexposed types, which could turn out to be anything on the day, but from a purely trends perspective it was a close call between the three on the shortlist. 

I have ended up suggesting a bet on Inquisitively to win as he is proven on the ground and has more scope to improve that the other two on the list.

READ MORE: Friday ITV racing tips: Best bets for day two at the Doncaster St Leger Festival