Doncaster betting tips: Trends point to Happy Romance and Get It for each-way value

14:25 Doncaster Betfred Portland (Heritage Handicap) (5½ furlongs)

A 22- runner Heritage Handicap is the perfect race for trends analysis, as there are multiple trends to help narrow down the field for further appraisal. 

The race tends to be something of a graveyard for market leaders, with only three winning favourites in the last 20 runnings, while 16 of the other winners have been priced 11/1 or greater.

That group includes 20/1 shot Call Me Ginger, who lines up to defend the crown he was awarded here a year ago after first-past-the-post Chipstead was demoted following a stewards’ inquiry. 

Planet Sport Bet: Bet £20+ cash on any runner in the race and if Dream Composer finishes in the first 5 places, get a £5 Free Bet!

The trends below will hopefully whittle down this year’s field to a more manageable number:

• 19/21 – Carried more than 8st-11lb
• 18/21 – Had run 5 or more times that season
• 17/21 – Won over 6 furlongs before
• 16/21 – Came from a double-figure stall
• 16/21 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
• 14/21 – Winner rated between 95 and 102
• 14/21 – Had run at Doncaster previously
• 14/21 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
• 13/21 – More than 3 career wins
• 11/21 – Unplaced Favourites
• 10/21 – Placed in their last race
•   9/21 – Winners aged 5 years old (inc. 9/15)
•   7/21 – Raced in that season’s Great St Wilfrid (Ripon)
•   5/21 – Winning favourites
•   4/21 – Raced at Ripon last time out
•   3/21 – Won by the Kevin Ryan yard
•   3/21 – Won last time out
•   2/21 – Ridden by William Buick
•   2/21 - Trained by Charles Hills
• 10/12 - Aged 5 or younger

Use of the trends left a shortlist of four runners for further analysis: Happy Romance, Annaf, Get It and Dream Composer

Suggested bet (1): Happy Romance each-way in the 14:25 at Doncaster

 

 

Happy Romance has won at Group 3 level twice, so must be in with a strong chance in this Class 2 race. Happy Romance has won on good to soft, but his best form has been on good or quicker going. The weather forecast from the Met Office shows rain on Thursday evening, before a sunny Friday and a cloudy but dry day on Saturday. If the forecast is correct Happy Romance may get good to soft, which will put him in the mix. Happy Romance has been running in Group races and his record in three Class 2 races is three wins.

Annaf has won at Listed level, but like all his five wins that was on an all weather surface and his record of 0-12 on turf does not inspire confidence. He also must shoulder top weight, which makes his task very tough here. Mick Appleby was quoted as thinking that Annaf will become a decent horse on turf in time, and his third in the King’s Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot is supportive of that view.

Get It won a valuable handicap at Wolverhampton last time and a repeat of that form should put him in the places, but my concern with him is the going, even if it dries out to good to soft. If the going was good, I would be confident about Get It mounting a challenge.

Suggested bet (2): Get It each-way in the 14:25 at Doncaster

 

Dream Composer is very consistent with 55% of his twenty nine turf runs resulting in a top three finish. He has won on good to soft, so less concern about the ground and has won off a mark one pound higher than his present mark. The stable has had a recent winner and Dougie Costello has won on the horse five times.

With a big field I think it prudent to put two horses up and I have selected Happy Romance and Get It, both each-way, and hopefully it will stay dry and the going tomorrow will be good-to-soft at worse.

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