Ascot racing tips: Trends analysis zeros in on Atrium and Pearle D’or as each-way value

15.35 Ascot: Howden Challenge Cup (Heritage Handicap) (7 furlongs)

 Last weekend was frustrating with the Cambridgeshire seeing our shortlist of five runners include only Majestic as one of the top five finishers. 

The selection for the Arc was rendered almost meaningless due to inaccurate going description, which was described as soft by both the Racing Post and France Gallop, while the times of the races indicated that the going was closer to good-to-firm!

Planet Sport Bet: Bet £20+ cash on any runner in the race and if Atrium finishes in the first 5 places, get a £5 Free Bet!

But upwards and onwards we go to this busy racing Saturday, and I am using the following trends to reduce the 18-runner field in the Howden Challenge Cup to a more manageable number.

• 19/20 – Winning distance of 2 lengths or less
• 17/20 – Won over 7 furlongs previously
• 16/20 – Won between 2-4 previous races
• 15/20 – Raced at Ascot previously
• 14/20 – Had raced within the last 30 days
• 12/20 – Aged 3 or 4 years old
• 11/20 – Carried under 9st 2lb
• 10/20 – Raced 7 or more times that season
•   9/20 – Returned a double-figure price
•   8/20 – Carried 8st-12lb or less
•   7/20 – Raced at Ayr last time out
•   6/20 – Favourites that won
•   2/20 – Trained by Roger Charlton
•   2/20 – Trained by Mick Channon
•   2/20 – Won their previous race
•   0/20 – Filly or mare winners
• 10/12 - Carried more than 9 stone
• 11/12 - Aged under 7 years old
•   7/14 - Came from stalls 8-13
•    5/14 - Horses from stall 10 finished top 4
•    4/14 - Horses from stall 11 finished top 3 
•     2/ 4 - Winners came from stall 17

I am pretty sure that course-and-distance winners Fresh, Escobar and Baradar will be in the mix again here, but using the trends I have ended up with the following shortlist: Atrium, Glenfinnan and Pearle D’Or.

Suggested bet: Atrium in the 15:35 at Ascot

Atrium has won at Ascot twice before and has also won in this Class and off this mark, so he must have a good chance again here. 

Atrium has won in a big field and Harry Davies is likely to hold him up and come with a late run, so if he can find the gaps in the final stages, then he can go close.

Glenfinnan is another course-distance winner and has run well in a big field, plus he is reasonably unexposed having only had eight runs (winning twice) in his career to date. 

Glenfinnan disappointed at Newmarket last time out following his win here but wasn’t beaten far in a decent race off today’s mark.

Pearle D’Or is another course and distance winner, but his wins have been with cut in the ground (including a win on heavy), but he is unlikely to get that on Saturday if the forecast is accurate, as the ground is good presently with sunshine forecast. 

However, he has also has run well on good-to-firm, so he does have chances here and if coping with his new mark and the six pounds penalty.

Suggested bet: Pearle D’Or in the 15:35 at Ascot

To sum up, Iam suggesting from those trends that my two to back each way are Pearle D’Or and Atrium, which are available at a tasty 16/1 at the time of writing, with most bookmakers paying out on five places.

 

READ MORE: Ascot racing tips: Best bets for Saturday October 7