Yarmouth free racing tip: Drop in trip set to suit overpriced front-runner

16.25 Yarmouth: Goffs Orby Handicap (6 furlongs)

The clear favourite is one of the three-year-olds, Smart Hero, but he has only won on the all-weather so far and has raced on turf just once, when  he was beaten on his handicap debut off an 8lb lower mark over an uphill seven furlong at Sandown.

A much more attractive bet at the prices is Rocking Ends, who finally reverts to six furlongs following a whole string of five-furlong runs for this yard, and even though the majority of his runs have been over the minimum trip, three of his top four performances have come over this longer distance.

Arguably his best-ever run came under today’s combination of conditions last summer, when he contested a 0-93 handicap at Windsor, which is another perfectly flat track, where the going was good-to-firm.
Going from the front using his five-furlong speed, he kept on well to eventually finish a close-up second of 11 with the front pair comfortably clear of their nine rivals.

Best Bet: Rocking Ends each-way in the 16:25 at Yarmouth

The winner won again two runs later, after which he was rated 8lbs higher than when edging out Rocking Ends, who is now 2lbs lower than he was then.

Significantly, two places behind Rocking Ends in that race was Buccabay, who not only re-opposes today but who does so on 5lb worse terms with Rocking Ends, yet he is a much shorter price in the early market.

Prior to his latest run, Rocking Ends was in the midst of a very good run of form, recording two wins, at Windsor and Newmarket, followed by a third of 12 in Class 2 company at Goodwood, so he is clearly a high-class sprint handicapper.

Back down in grade and back on his preferred surface today, a bold bid can be expected from a sprinter who is very likely still in good form.

Another plus is the return to the saddle of Kieran Shoemark, who rode him to win at Newmarket in July but who hasn’t ridden him since.

Of the others, Amazonian Dream is a multiple fast-ground winner, whose last three wins have all come over six furlongs on the flat track at Windsor, the last of which was a higher-graded Class 2 contest which he won at the start of July.

Oisin Murphy has ridden him to his last two successes and another bold bid looks likely, even though the five-year-old is now 4lbs above his top winning mark.

Next best bet: Amazonian Dream each-way in the 16:25 at Yarmouth

• Preview and tips provided Steve Jones, who runs CD Systems Daily Bargain on Tipstrr

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