Roberto Bautista Agut good value to land the ASB Classic

Derek Bilton
8 January 2024

Roberto Bautista Agut of Spain returns the ball to Marin Cilic of Croatia during the men's singles quarterfinal tennis match of the ATP 250 St. Petersburg Open

A couple of ATP 250 events follow the season-opening action at the United Cup and in Brisbane and Hong Kong this week.

Am not sure what the actual stats are, but I will wager that backing the pre-tournament favourite in a tournament happening a week before a Grand Slam is a quick way to the poor house.

In New Zealand last year for example, Richard Gasquet ended up winning the ASB Classic and the Frenchman will have been nowhere near the head of the betting markets before kick-off.

He beat Cameron Norrie in a three-set final to land his 16th ATP title, and the first in almost five years. Casper Ruud was the top seed 12 months ago, and will have been short in terms of his outright price, but lost in his first match.

This year Felix Auger Aliassime, Ben Shelton and Norrie head the betting, but of those, I would only seriously fancy a punt on Norrie, who was raised in New Zealand and who is 7-3 at this event having made the final twice.

Auger Aliassime is ranked No. 6 in the world while Shelton is up to World No. 15. Both will have real aspirations of going deep at the Australian Open, so both will presumably not want to be battling it out at the business end of a 250 event in another country next weekend with the Aussie Open about to start.

Incidentally, if you fancy the ‘Gas Man’ to do the business again this week and retain his title, you can get odds north of 40/1.

I will politely swerve those odds on Gasquet if it is all the same to you, but do not hate Roberto Bautista Agut at 11/1.

Last year at the Adelaide International 2 event, he reached the final before losing in a mild shock to Kwon Soon-woo in a final set tiebreak.

Bautista Agut is a gnarled veteran on Tour, a counterpuncher who is a nightmare to play against due to his level of consistency.

He has a dangerous forehand but his speed and defensive prowess around the court has helped him win 11 ATP titles.

That is a decent return given he has been playing in an era of legit tennis legends such as Messrs Djokovic and Nadal.

He gets fellow Spaniard Roberto Carballes Baena first up this week in a match that he should win.

He is in the same half of the draw as Shelton, and will not fear the American even if they end up playing each other.

Over in Adelaide, I am going to take a leap of faith and get with Thanasi Kokkinakis. The 27-year-old was born and raised in Adelaide, so takes this event seriously.

He won a maiden ATP singles title at the Adelaide International 2 in 2022, and made the semi-finals last year.

He clearly feels at home at Memorial Drive Park, but is a big price as the bookies are unsure he will get past his first match.

On the other side of the net first up will be Dusan Lajovic, a Serb who has a positive 2-0 head-to-head record against the Aussie.

However, both those matches happened in 2015 and if he can get through against Lajovic, ‘Kokk’ could bet set for another big run.

Though best known for his exploits as a doubles player, as a junior, Kokkinakis was ranked as high as No. 10 in the world in singles so knows what he is doing.

He clearly loves playing at his home event, and looks worth a small play at 22/1.