ATP Tour tips and predictions: Nakashima delight in the States, Rune to contend in Hamburg
- Derek Bilton
- 15 July 2024
After an action-packed couple of weeks at Wimbledon, there's plenty of action on the ATP tour this week with events in Hamburg and Newport and Tennis expert Derek Bilton has the tips you need.
We drew a blank at Wimbledon but Jannik Sinner backers must surely count themselves unlucky after the Italian revealed he was experiencing dizziness out on court during his five-set defeat to Daniil Medvedev in the quarter-finals on Tuesday.
Alas, it was not to be for Sinner, our headline pick who still remains world number one. Carlos Alcaraz might well reach the dizzying Grand Slam heights of his compatriot Rafael Nadal or Novak Djokovic in years to come, after blowing the latter off court in a one-sided SW19 final on Sunday.
It was such a fantastic display, with the Spaniard showing power and poise to dismantle the Serbian icon. Indeed on that showing – hot on the heels of his French Open win - it feels like Alcaraz is closer to becoming the dominant force in his sport than ever before. However, the forthcoming Olympics and US Open should tell us more.
The grass season is not completely over of course, as Stateside this week we have the Infosys Hall of Fame Open. The Newport gig does not contain anyone from inside the ATP Top 10, but as a result it is a competitive betting heat with Brandon Nakashima the 4/1 tournament favourite.
Nakashima has lost 10 of his 21 ATP matches this season, however he gave a decent account of himself at Wimbledon, beating useful players on grass in the form of Sebastian Baez and Jordan Thompson before losing a close contest (that had three tie-breaks) in four-sets against Frenchman Ugo Humbert.
Marcos Giron is the second seed in Newport, and Nakashima won’t fear him having won their only career meeting to date at Indian Wells back in 2020.
Nakashima won the 2022 Next Gen ATP Finals title, and while he has not truly kicked on since then he still has bags of potential. He also has an ATP Tour title to his name, winning in his hometown at the 2022 San Diego Open so his price of 4/1 looks worth rowing in given the mediocre field and the fact he has won on US soil before.
There is a decent field on clay over in Hamburg also this week, with Alexander Zverev the top seed.
While not quite as prestigious as it was back in the day when it was a Masters 1000 Series event, it still has ATP 500 event status these days so winning at the Rothenbaum is still a big deal.
Zverev seemed troubled by a knee issue in his epic defeat to Taylor Fritz at Wimbledon, so I am not inclined to get involved at odds of around 5/2.
If it is not going to be the German, I do like the look of the 9/4 offered by Planet Sport Bet that the winner comes from the 4th Quarter.
Holger Rune is the second seed (and therefore in Q4) and played well at Wimbledon before running into Djokovic. Rune has won on clay in similar conditions over in Munich for each of the past two seasons, and ticks plenty of boxes as a potential winner here.
Also in that quarter is Arthur Fils, an improving Frenchman who is excellent on clay. Fils won a Challenger Event in Bordeaux on the clay, before a decent showing at SW19 when he reached the last 16.
Fils should be motivated here, and will want to go deep with the Olympics taking place on clay in his home country pretty soon. Odds of 9/4 for either him or Rune getting it done in Hamburg looks a cracking price if Zverev is not 100% fit.
