ATP Tour tips and predictions: Andrey Rublev and Reilly Opelka backed to impress

We landed a 9/4 winner for the column last week as Arthur Fils eventually got over the line at the Hamburg Open.

Fils beat world number four Alexander Zverev over three and a half hours in a spicy final in Germany, with the umpire at one point forced to separate the pair after the got into a heated confrontation on court.

There is a low-key start to the US hardcourt swing this week in Atlanta, a swing that will culminate in the US Open final in New York, which begins in five weeks’ time.

A lot of the big names on the Tour are focusing on the Olympics in Paris – taking place on clay – so this field is not as strong as it might be. Ben Shelton is the top seed and if his serve is in good order, he could potentially clean up this week.

However, the young American looks short enough at 7/2 in the betting when you consider how erratic he has been so far in 2024. A final on clay in Houston (which he won) is the only success of note and that is a poor return given the hype that surrounds this young man.

A better shout in the top half of the draw could be Reilly Opelka, who looks a value play at 28/1. The courts in Atlanta play super fast, and Opelka can zing down a first serve that measures over 140mph when he is ‘on’, making him one of the toughest opponents to break, especially on hard.

The former world No 17 has had his fair share of injury problems over the last few years, but seems to be healthy now and is tough to beat against anyone on faster terrain.

He looked decent on grass in Newport last week before blowing up in the semis when his serve totally deserted him. Before that, he fizzed down 62 aces in three matches and looked rock solid. If he can reproduce such form in Atlanta, not many will be able to live with him and he looks a big price at 28s.

Elsewhere we have a ATP 250 event in Umag, where Andrey Rublev is the top seed. Rublev has gone viral several times already this summer. Alas, it has not been for his quality play but instead some bizarre episodes of on-court self-harm via hitting his legs in frustration with his racket.

After an opening loss to Thiago Agustin Tirante as the top seed last week in Bastad, Rublev is still in search of his first win since Roland Garros, but if he can stay calm he might be able to win in Umag.

He is quality on clay when he is focused, and won the Madrid Masters earlier this year. He will have happy memories of this venue, as Umag is the place where won his first ATP titles back in 2017.

If he can curb the racket-smashing, kicking of furniture, and repeatedly hitting himself in the leg with his racket, he is plenty good enough to win this event again.

 

Suggested bets

Tip #1 - Reilly Opelka to win the Atlanta Open at 28/1 (Planet Sport Bet)

Tip #2 - Andrey Rublev to win ATP Umag at 7/2 (Planet Sport Bet)