Australian Open final: Djokovic the biggest loser as Medvedev and Nadal prepare to make history

Michael Graham
29 January 2022

Daniil Medvedev and Rafael Nadal, Australian Open

The drama in the men’s draw of the Australian Open started before the tournament had even begun as Novak Djokovic faced deportation. Interestingly, he will be the biggest loser in the final too.

Talk beforehand was dominated by whether or not Djokovic could win what would be a record 21st major, but he will lose that honour to Rafael Nadal should the Spaniard win the final.

If Nadal loses it and Daniil Medvedev wins a second successive Grand Slam crown, Djokovic will lose his world number one spot to the Russian.

When: Sunday 30 January 8.30AM GMT

Where: Melbourne Park, Melbourne (outdoor hard)

Watch: Eurosport

Head-to-head

This will be their fifth meeting to date and Nadal has very much had the best of the head-to-heads.

They have a Grand Slam final in that head-to-head too, and it was an absolutely brilliantly one.

It was Medvedev's first major final as he bid to win the 2019 US Open, but he was not the player he is today and Nadal took a firm control of the match by winning the first two sets.

Medvedev showed his mettle, fighting back to level the match and forcing a deciding set. However, very few people win three sets in a row against Nadal, and unsurprisingly it was the Spaniard who powered to the title.

Their last two matches have been at the ATP Finals, with Medvedev's only win coming in the most recent encounter.

2019 - Montreal (Outdoor hard) Nadal 3-6, 7-6, 6-3

2019 - US Open (Outdoor hard) Nadal 7-5, 6-3, 5-7, 4-6, 6-4

2019 - ATP Finals (Indoor Hard) Nadal 6-7, 6-3, 7-6

2020 - ATP Finals (Indoor Hard) Medvedev 3-6, 7-6, 6-3

Nadal's most surprising final?

It feels wrong to even think this given he is going for a record major, but Rafael Nadal is a bit of a surprise participant in this final.

Nadal saw his season decimated by a foot-injury last year, playing just one tournament after the French Open in May. He later revealed he had been playing with pain for 18 months.

To further complicate matters, he tested positive for Covid in late December, just days before he travelled to Australia.

For most players - almost all in fact - you'd expect a period of a few months to get themselves back up to speed, but seemingly not Nadal. He won the Melbourne Summer Set just before the Australian Open and now he has a chance to forge ahead of Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer in the Grand Slam race.

6 - Rafael #Nadal has reached his 6th final at the Australian Open, becoming the third player in the Open Era with 6+ finals in this tournament alongside Novak Djokovic (nine) and Roger Federer (seven) - overtaking Stefan Edberg and Andy Murray, both with five. Rocket.#AusOpen
— OptaAce (@OptaAce) January 28, 2022

What has stood out from Nadal during the tournament so far has been the consistency of his serving.

He has faced a tough route to the final, coming up against Denis Shapovalov and Matteo Berrettini, but his serve has been good enough to be able to dictate terms while his defence is always enough to stop others from doing the same to him.

He will need to maintain those levels if he is going to get anything out of Medvedev, and he certainly won't be as easy to dictate to as his previous opponents in the tournament.

However, as long as Rafael Nadal has a racket in his hand, he has a great chance of winning any tennis match.

Is Daniil Medvedev the new dominant force in men's tennis?

For years men's tennis has been waiting for a true successor to Nadal, Djokovic and Federer. It would appear that Medvedev has emerged as the man to do it.

The Russian is playing in his fourth major final and his second in a row and he is not doing it the easy way either given two of those finals were against Djokovic and the others are against Nadal.

Medvedev is also probably the most unique player the men's game has seen since Nadal himself.

His forehand technique is more to swing his arms than rotate his hips like others, yet he still generates more power than most.

1 - Daniil #Medvedev is the first Russian male player to reach back-to-back Grand Slam finals in the Open Era. Repeat.#AO2022 #AustralianOpen #AusOpen pic.twitter.com/DKsxTJY2ic
— OptaAce (@OptaAce) January 28, 2022

With Djokovic deported, this has been the first Slam in which Medvedev has been the big favourite from the start. He's the highest-ranked player in the draw and is, afterall, a hardcourt specialist.

He has coped with that pressure admirably, though. He was in a perilous position against Felix Auger-Aliassime in the quarters, but he was able to fight back from two sets down to win.

Stefanos Tsitsipas was another big test in the semis, but he came though it with authority.

There is little doubt that Medvedev is the real deal right now. He may not have the same supreme longevity as the big three have demonstrated, although you'd probably still back him to beat anyone in the game on any given day at the moment.

Previous meeting

Medvedev faced Nadal in the semi-finals of the ATP Finals in London in 2020 and it was a tournament that really showcased his growing influence in the men's game.

He had already beaten Djokovic in the round-robin stage and he went on to win the tournament too.

Beating one of those to win a big title is rare, beating them both in the same tournament is nearly unheard of.

Planet Sport Prediction

This one is very difficult to call and that is exactly what you want from a Grand Slam final.

Medvedev is the dominant player on the ATP Tour right now and is playing on his favourite surface, but it is Nadal who has all the experience and the greater pedigree.

There is every chance this one will go to five, and we'll back Nadal to pinch it on experience.