Tottenham vs Nottingham Forest tips and predictions: Nuno to have first laugh against old club

Tottenham Hotspur have endured an eventful few days after surviving scares against Luton Town and West Ham.

Heung-min Son's 86th-minute goal delivered a deserved three points against the Hatters after scores of chances had gone beginning.

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Spurs produced one of the highest xG of the Premier League season at 2.99 and missed three glorious chances to add to the score.

Ange Postecoglou’s side gift-wrapped a winning goal for Michal Antonio on Tuesday but his wasteful finishing let them off the hook.

Sheffield United (33.8%) are the only side to enjoy less possession than Nottingham Forest (38%) on the road this year, so we expect the hosts to dominate the ball.

That in turn means plenty of chance creation but Forest have done a good job of limiting opposition to low-quality chances in recent games.

Nuno Espirito Santo’s side have allowed two Opta-defined big chances in their last five matches, a run in which they’ve faced Liverpool, Brighton and Fulham.

That sort of disciplined defending allows for counter-attacking opportunities and Forest are second in that metric with eight goals on the break.

Spurs’ wasteful finishing and Forest’s stingy defence make backing over 3.5 goals a risk as this could easily mirror the host's wins over Luton and Brighton.

Instead, we’ll look to play on the fact Big Ange’s side have conceded first in their last six home matches yet found a way to win four of them.

 

Team news

Spurs have no major injury concerns with Brennan Johnson expected to recover from a midweek ‘knock’.

Fraser Forster, Ryan Sessegnon and Manor Solomon remain long-term absentees.

The visitors will be without Willy Boly, Nuno Tavares and Taiwo Awoniyi.

The latter is a big blow but Chris Wood has been in fine form with three in three and is expected to start on Sunday.

 

Key stats

-  Tottenham have conceded first in their last six home matches
-  There have been over 2.5 goals in Tottenham’s last 11 home league matches
-  Forest have scored in 12 of their previous 14 Premier League matches
-  Forest have lost by two clear goals once in 19 matches

 

Suggested bets

Nottingham Forest +1.25 Asian handicap

Over 2.5 goals and both teams score

Nottingham Forest to score first