Newcastle vs Brighton tips and predictions: Free scoring Toon to grab vital win in race for Europe

Thomas Ridley
9 May 2024

Newcastle return to St. James' Park for the final time this season as they look to pick up a vital win against Brighton in the race for Europe on Saturday (1500 BST).

As ever it's been an eventful season on Tyneside, the euphoria of the 4-1 hammering of PSG seems like its was seven years ago not seven months ago.

There's been so many sub-plots in this Newcastle 2023/24 story: a plague of injuries, cup draws that could give any team nightmares, the suspension of Sandro Tonali and the emergence of youngster Lewis Miley.

However, it feels for the first time this season that their fate is firmly in their own hands, win all three of their remaining games and the Geordies can reach for their passports once again and dream of an array of brilliant away days, but instead of Dortmund and Milan, this time its more likely to be Bilbao and Freiburg.

Brighton stand in the way of Eddie Howe's men this week and the Seagulls have failed to hit the heights of last season, with their own European adventure taking its toll on Roberto De Zerbi's squad.

Despite their lacklustre form in recent months seeing them drop into mid-table, they looked more like the Brighton from last season in their last outing, an impressive 1-0 win against high-flying Aston Villa.

Despite that win, the Seagulls have been having some travel sickness, with just one win in their last 12 league games on the road.

For a team that has struggled on the road, Newcastle is one of the last places you want to go, with 12 of the Magpies' 17 league wins coming on their own patch, only the top three have won more at home.

Alexander Isak has been key to that excellent home form, the Swede has scored in all of his last seven home matches, with three braces in that run too, so backing Isak to score more than once seems like a good option.

Despite their good form at home, De Zerbi's side will take some encouragement from Newcastle's patched-up defence, with Emil Krafth and Dan Burn deputising in the centre of defence.

The Toon have shored up at the back in recent weeks but are always prone to letting the odd goal in, with both teams scoring in seven of the last nine games played at St. James' Park, so both teams to score looks like a wise choice.

Despite a good win against Villa last time out, we think that the travel-sick Seagulls will lose at Newcastle by more than one goal, with eight of the Magpies' 12 home wins coming by more than one goal.

Team news

Matt Targett, Kieran Trippier, Lewis Miley, Joe Willock, Sven Botman, Jamaal Lascelles and Fabian Schar are all ruled out with injury for the hosts, while Sandro Tonali is still suspended.

Brighton are without a host of players due to injury. Solly March, Tariq Lamptey, Kaoru Mitoma, Evan Ferguson, Jack Hinshelwood, Pervis Estupinian, James Milner, Jan Paul Van Hecke and Adam Lallana are all ruled out.