Luton Town vs Brighton tips and predictions: Away day woes to continue for Seagulls

Luton Town will be feeling good about life after recording back-to-back wins in the FA Cup.

Cauley Woodrow’s 90th-minute winner at Goodison Park saw the Hatters beat Everton for the second time this season, while nine days earlier they won 2-1 at Bolton.

Rob Edwards’ side is on a four-match unbeaten streak with their only loss in seven being a 3-2 thriller at home to Chelsea.

Visitors Brighton are unbeaten in six and have only lost two of 15 across all competitions so they’ve improved on the first block of 15 games.

However, the Seagulls have won three of 15 in the Premier League and two of those games were at the AMEX Stadium.

Their 0-0 draw with West Ham was the first time they’ve kept a Premier League clean sheet away from home since May 2023.

 

 

Roberto De Zerbi’s side had previously conceded 1.88 goals per game on their travels while hitting back with 16 goals of their own.

Luton’s previous five home games have produced 19 goals and that defies the expected goals produced in those matches by some distance.

Only Burnley have produced a lower xG at home than Luton but the Hatters are one of the most clinical teams in the league.

This is a hard game to pull apart so we’re going to just go by the numbers and look for the value. By our estimation, the implied probability of Luton claiming at least a point is 51.2%.

That equates to odds just above 9/10 (1.90) but as you can see from the widget above, the price is much higher, so we’ll happily snap up Luton double chance.

If you look at Brighton’s results, then both teams scoring is highly likely. If we lean more on xG, that also suggests a price of 2/5 for both teams to score.

 

Key stats

- Luton are unbeaten in four games across all competitions
- The Hatters have lost one of their previous seven matches
- Both teams have scored in nine of 10 Brighton away games
- Brighton have won three of 15 Premier League games
- The Seagulls are conceding 1.7 goals per game on their travels

 

Team news

Luton’s injury crisis is easing. Marvellous Nakamba, Tom Lockyer, Mads Anderson and Issa Kabore are the only injured absentees.

Jordan Clark will be available for selection again after serving a suspension for yellow card accumulation.

Solly March, Joel Veltman are Julio Enciso are ruled out.

Brighton are without several key attackers as Ansu Fati (injury), Kaoru Mitoma (international) and Simon Adingra (international) are out.

 

Suggested bets

Luton: Double chance

Both teams to score