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Euro 2020 Golden Boot odds: Kane, Lukaku, Wijnaldum and Eriksen

Harry Kane England Oct20

Andy Schooler’s latest Euro 2020 betting tips come in the Golden Boot (top goalscorer) market, and he’s got 100/1 and 125/1 shots among his selections.

Best bets

Romelu Lukaku to win at 15/2 (Sky Bet, Betway)

Ferran Torres each way at 40/1 (general)

Christian Eriksen each way at 100/1 (general)

Georginio Wijnaldum each way at 125/1 (William Hill)

Group stage success the key?

Much of the work for winning the Golden Boot can be done in the group stage when the opposition is weaker - as Harry Kane showed at the 2018 World Cup.

Of Kane's six goals, five came in the group stage. While Antoine Griezmann didn't follow suit at Euro 2016. Five of his six goals came in the knockout stage as France went all the way to the final - a look back at the World Cup when it was played in this 24-team format shows a strong group stage was usually required.

Gary Lineker (1986), Oleg Salenko (1994 joint) and Hristo Stoichkov (1994 joint) also scored at least 50% of their goals in the group stage. In Salenko's case, he scored all six prior to the knockout phase.

I'm therefore keen to get a player capable of bullying the lower-ranked sides and that's why I'm siding with Romelu Lukaku when betting on Euro 2020's top goalscorer.

It would be harsh to call him a flat-track bully - that suggests he does little against the big boys - but it's certainly the case that he regularly goes to town against international football's lesser lights.
The Belgian's record since Euro 2016 is simply terrific.
He's played 40 internationals in that period and scored 42 goals, including four in the group stage of the 2018 World Cup.
In Russia, he scored a brace against both Panama and Tunisia and he's now netted two or more goals in 14 of those 40 matches between European Championships.

While I've already expressed my reservations about Belgium in my outright preview of the tournament given some of the doubts surrounding their top players, I do still expect them to progress comfortably into the knockout stage given their group contains Denmark, Russia and Finland.

Certainly Lukaku will be eyeing the latter two opponents. Belgium put seven past Russia in their two meetings in qualifying. Lukaku only played in one (and scored).
Debutants Finland lost four times in qualifying and won't be relishing facing the might of the Belgians, who scored more goals than any side in qualifying (40 in 10 games).
Lukaku arrives at Euro 2020 having fired Inter Milan to the Serie A title. He bagged 24 goals in the process and has barely stopped scoring since arriving at the San Siro from Manchester United two years ago.
Yes, Lukaku's among the favourites but there are good reasons why he's 15/2 and he's still worth backing at those Euro 2020 odds.

A fresh Torres a threat

From a little further down the market, it's worth taking a chance on Ferran Torres at 40/1.

The Manchester City man has forced his way into the Spain side this season and he's now started their last six games either on the left or right of the attack.

But he's been able to get among the goals from wider positions - as he did at City on his limited opportunities this season.
The former Valencia man has scored six times in nine competitive appearances for his national side, including three in the 6-0 demolition of Germany.
At City, Torres netted 13 goals in his debut season (including four in the Champions League) despite not starting regularly.
He never let anyone down, often catching the eye in different positions and certainly looks to have a future at the Etihad.
The fact that he's not run himself into the ground could also be a real bonus heading into this tournament which comes at the end of a packed season with many stars having played virtually non-stop for the past 12 months.

Spain will have home advantage against Sweden, Poland and a particularly weak-looking Slovakia so there look to be ample opportunities for them - and Torres - to get among the goals.

Wijnaldum a wildcard option

With there being up to six places available for each-way punters (four is the standard), I always like to look for a big price or two in this market.
History shows it's a wise approach - Dimitri Payet landed a place at 66/1 at Euro 2016, while Mario Mandzukic, Alan Dzagoev and Roman Pavlyuchenko all made the places at treble-figure prices in 2012 and 2008.
Russia's Denis Cheryshev was the man to be on at the 2018 World Cup having gone off at 200/1.
The two I like in Euro 2020 are Georginio Wijnaldum, of the Netherlands, and Denmark's Christian Eriksen.
Wijnaldum takes on a more attacking role for the Dutch than he does at Liverpool and that's been reflected in his recent goal output.
In 22 competitive games since the World Cup, he's netted 14 times. Eight of those came in qualifying in which he top-scored for his team.

Netherlands' Georginio Wijnaldum

Importantly, his goals have not simply come against the minnows of the international game. Far from it.
Wijnaldum has found the net in matches against Germany (twice), world champions France and Poland. All of them were won by a team who certainly have the potential to go deep in the tournament.

Fit the outright odds into the draw, one which has been kind to Frank de Boer's side, and you have them going out in the semi-finals.

But regardless of whether the Netherlands do manage to launch a title challenge, their group fixtures suggest Wijnaldum will get chances to get up and running early.
Group C looks one of the weakest with Austria, Ukraine and debutants North Macedonia also involved.
As an added bonus, the Dutch will have home advantage with all their group matches being staged in Amsterdam.
Some will say Memphis Depay's presence in the side will take goals away from Wijnaldum and there's something in that.
Yet Depay, largely used as a centre forward in the past three years, has been pushed wider in recent games and that should be a concern for anyone backing him at 18/1 in this market.

At the prices, I much prefer Wijnaldum, who simply looks too big at 125/1 with William Hill, although they only pay a third of the odds for a place in the top three. Bet365 and Betfred will give you 80s under the regular terms of a quarter of the odds for a top-four finish. The choice is yours.

Finally, Eriksen also looks overpriced at 100/1.

My outright preview highlighted exactly why I'm keen on the Danes enjoying a deep run in the tournament - in summary: strong, well-rested team, decent draw - and if that happens Eriksen looks sure to play a big part.

He's the team's focal point and another who often gets further forward than he does for his club, driving into the box from his attacking-midfield role.

Eriksen was used sparingly by Inter Milan during their Serie A title-winning campaign but that should leave him with plenty left in the tank for this final push of 2020/21.

Eriksen is on penalties and also takes a good free kick around the box.
With the forward line not Denmark's strongest suit, he'll be expected to contribute goals and will be given the ball accordingly.
Again, he'll have three home games in the group stage with Russia and Finland both looking potentially vulnerable in the pool.
Three goals are usually enough to place (they were enough to win in 2012) and so I can't have Eriksen as a 100/1 shot.

One final point: make sure you know what you are betting on.

Some firms, such as Sky Bet, bet on the Golden Boot winner - this prize won't be shared. If there's a tie on goals, assists and minutes played will be used as tie-breakers.
Others, including Betfair, bet on the tournament's top goalscorer with dead-heat rules used if players finish level on goals.
* Odds correct at time of publication

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