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Euro 2020 outrights: Italy can grind their way to success, while Denmark could go deep

Lorenzo Insigne Italy Jun21

Andy Schooler brings you his best betting tips in the Euro 2020 outright market with Italy fancied to conquer Europe. There’s also a 28/1 each-way shot to consider in his in-depth preview.

Best bets

Italy to win Euro 2020 at 11/1 (Sky Bet)

Denmark each way in Euro 2020 at 28/1 (general)

Denmark to reach the quarter-finals at 5/4 (general)

Not your usual season

It has been a season like no other and after what we've seen in 2020/21, would it really be a surprise to see the most-favoured teams fail at Euro 2020?

The odds-on favourites were toppled in Italy, Spain and France in the current campaign - you'd have got quite a price on the Inter Milan, Atletico Madrid and Lille treble.

There was also a shock in Portugal where Sporting Lisbon won their first title in 19 years, while don't forget Chelsea are now champions of Europe.

And with fatigue and injuries a bigger concern than ever heading into this tournament, it could pay to expect the unexpected again with betting on Euro 2020.

Italy

Italy sit only seventh in the outright betting market but they look good value with betting odds of 11/1.

Missing out on the 2018 World Cup was a disaster for a country with such a rich footballing history but they have recovered superbly under the astute management of Roberto Mancini.

They head into Euro 2020 on a 27-match unbeaten run with their famous defence looking rock solid.

Eighteen of those 27 matches have been won 'to nil', including the last eight. Only the other day fellow qualifiers Czech Republic were crushed 4-0.

The lack of top-quality opposition is the reason for their double-figure price but the assumption that Italy will not be able to cope with the likes of Belgium, who they will face in the quarter-finals if both sides win their group and progress, may not be correct.

Defensive soccer won the day at Euro 2016 and if this tournament becomes a similar grind, then I'd suggest few sides are better equipped than Italy.
With Giorgio Chiellini and Leonardo Bonucci still going strong and decent back-up also available - think Inter Milan title-winner Alessandro Bastoni - the Italians have conceded just seven goals in their 27-match unbeaten streak. Keeper Gianluigi Donnarumma is also rated one of Europe's best.

Italy keeper Gianluigi Donnarumma

Marco Verratti looks set to be fit after an injury scare and he is a quality option in a midfield also featuring Jorginho and Nicolo Barella.
Up front, Ciro Immobile continues to score goals for fun in Serie A, while Lorenzo Insigne has enjoyed an excellent season for Napoli.
Domenico Berardi and Federico Chiesa are exciting talents also available to Mancini.

OK, there are stronger squads than this but the likes of France and Belgium are at much shorter prices.

Portugal

Portugal are arguably the other value bet at 9/1 - their squad is packed with talent and they will certainly have a strong bench. The use of substitutes - five will be allowed per match - could be crucial as managers look to deal with those fatigue issues caused by the shortened (by time but not matches) season.

Cristiano Ronaldo, Joao Felix, Diogo Jota, Bruno Fernandes, Bernardo Silva and Andre Silva is quite a list of attacking talent - certainly better than the reigning champions had five years ago.

The defence is probably the concern in this team with much resting on Ruben Dias following his impressive first season at Manchester City.

Manchester City and Portugal's Ruben Dias

What is also off-putting is their draw.

While Euro 2016 showed how difficult it can be to plot out a route to the final for any side - Portugal finished third in their group but still only had to beat Croatia, Poland and Wales to get to the final - there's no doubt the European champions have landed in the hardest group.

In their upcoming games, they must play 'proper' away matches in Germany and Hungary, while also taking on world champions France.

I'd still expect them to progress but they could easily be left to face Belgium or Netherlands in the last 16.

Germany

In that 'group of death', Germany look a poor title bet at a best price of 9/1 despite the fact they will play all three games in Munich.
They flopped at the 2018 World Cup, going out in the group stage for the very first time, and things haven't really picked up since with disappointing results in the Nations League and World Cup qualifying.

Frankly I'm bemused how a team who lost 6-0 to Spain earlier this season and were beaten 2-1 at home to North Macedonia in their last competitive match can be on offer at 9/1. They are surely being priced up on past reputation.

France

France look worthy favourites with the strongest squad. Most importantly it is well rounded with all areas of the team looking strong and with decent strength in depth too.
However, their presence in the trickiest group is rather concerning for those looking to back them at no more than 5/1, particularly given they won't play any home matches.

Belgium

Axel Witsel comes into the tournament off the back of a long injury lay-off

Belgium are also packed with talent but doubts surround some of their key men.

Eden Hazard has been a shadow of the player who was arguably the star of the 2018 World Cup, while defensive shield Axel Witsel hasn't played for months. Kevin de Bruyne's Champions League final injury is another big worry with questions remaining over what part he can play in this tournament.

At least they have Romelu Lukaku, a striker with a terrific goalscoring record at international level, but with his supply lines arguably weakened, I can leave Belgium alone at 15/2.

Netherlands

Netherlands have the potential to go well, particularly given where they've landed in the draw.

With three games in Amsterdam, the likes of Memphis Depay, Georginio Wijnaldum, Frenkie de Jong and Matthijs de Ligt will fancy their chances of topping a group containing Ukraine, Austria and North Macedonia.

If they do so, they won't have to face another group winner until the semi-finals.

However, they've been prone to some iffy results in recent times and doubts remain about manager Frank de Boer's ability, after a shaky start to his tenure. Virgil van Dijk's absence also won't help.

Virgil van Dijk will be a big miss for Netherlands

Spain

Spain are another side well drawn if they win their group, which they should do given they will be at home for all three games.

However, they've lost a lot of experience from their side in recent times, something which makes the omission of Sergio Ramos look somewhat strange. Will defensively they be strong enough? For me, the late call-up of the uncapped Aymeric Laporte said much.

England

Finally, of the leading contenders, we come to England.

They are undoubtedly blessed with attacking talent but manager Gareth Southgate has given the impression he's not sure what his best team is or what the formation gives his side the best chance. Neither was the case ahead of the 2018 World Cup when they made the semi-finals.

They will have the significant advantage of playing largely at Wembley - win their group and the only match they'd have to play abroad would be the quarter-final.
But the draw has not been kind. Win Group D and England will have to play the runner-up from that 'group of death', likely to be France, Germany or Portugal.

Harry Maguire remains an injury concern for England

While England have beaten the likes of Spain and Belgium since the World Cup, there's still a feeling they could be vulnerable defensively against the top sides, a theory only strengthened by the recent injury to linchpin Harry Maguire.

They certainly look too short with the England odds to win Euro 2020 around 5/1.

Outsiders

So we return to that 'outsider' potential - not only has this been a strange season but it should be remembered there have been some unexpected winners of this tournament.
Portugal were 22/1 ahead of Euro 2016, while who could forget Greece's 100/1 triumph in 2004?

If there is to be another shock this year, it could well come from Denmark, who look worth a dabble each-way given their Euro 2020 odds of 28/1.

Their starting XI has got players from some of Europe's top clubs and they've gelled into a team which has proved very difficult to beat.
Taking out a game affected by a player strike and counting their World Cup penalty shootout exit as a draw, the Danes have lost just two of their last 46 internationals, both to Belgium.
At the last World Cup, they drew with both finalists - France and Croatia - while this season they've beaten England at Wembley and held Germany to a draw.
They boast a top goalkeeper in Kasper Schmeichel, while the defence has many strong options, including veteran Milan centre-back Simon Kjaer, Chelsea's Andreas Christensen and Southampton's Jannik Vestergaard.
In midfield, holders Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg and Thomas Delaney allow the team's star Christian Eriksen off the leash and he regularly delivers with goals.

That's required as the forward line is the team's weakest area, although it still boasts a Barcelona player in Martin Braithwaite.

Then there's the fatigue factor.
While many rival teams arrive with star players having been flogged throughout a hectic campaign, Denmark have key men relatively well rested.
Eriksen was used sparingly by Inter Milan during their Serie A-winning season, while Braithwaite wasn't a regular starter at Camp Nou.

Barcelona's Martin Braithwaite comes into the tournament relatively fresh

Christensen and Delaney were others who were far from pushed to the limit by their clubs.
While some will take the opposite view, I see this as a positive at a tournament where fitness and energy levels could well play a significant part.
Being in Group B looks to have its draw advantages too.

If, as the betting suggests, they finish runners-up to Belgium, the Danes will face the second-placed team in Group A, likely to be one of Switzerland, Turkey or Wales.

Given this, I'm also happy to back them to reach the quarter-finals at a decent-looking price of 5/4.

READ MORE: Euro 2020 preview: Group F not quite a group of death but Germany could still perish

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