Everton are going down - if the stats are to be believed

Seb Sternik
13 March 2022

Everton manager Frank Lampard applauds during the Premier League match at St Mary's, Southampton.

Frank Lampard has 12 games left to secure Everton’s Premier League status. Here, Planet Sport takes an in-depth look at the stats and analyses his chances of success.

The mainstream view is that in order for a club to secure its Premier League status, the magic number of points required is 40.

In truth, that number is a tad higher than the actual statistical average. If you take into account every Premier League season since the competition changed its format to 20 clubs, the average number of points required to avoid relegation is 36.

As things stand, Everton currently have 22 points after 26 games - a rate of just 0.84 points per game - and sit just one place above the bottom three.

The Toffees need 14 more points to reach the survival average of 36. This means that from their remaining 12 games, Everton need to improve their points-per-game rate to 1.16.

Question is, where are those points going to come from? We take a look at their final 12 games of the campaign.

Newcastle United (H)

Win probability: Everton 39%, Draw 27%, Newcastle 34%

Last five PL head-to-heads:

Everton wins: 1

Draws: 1

Newcastle wins: 3

Everton goals: 6

Newcastle goals: 10

Looking at the win probability, there's little to separate the teams. Newcastle are enjoying the best spell of the season and at the time of writing, they've gone eight games without defeat.

The last meetings between the clubs took place just four weeks ago as the Magpies won 3-1 at St James' Park.

The signs don't look good for Everton in this one, but they have won four of their last seven home encounters with Newcastle.

Verdict: Considering the Magpies are flying under Eddie Howe, even a point would do for Everton. However, looking at some of their following fixtures, we can't deny that this is a game which Lampard's men should be winning if they are to survive.

Watford (Away)

Win probability: Watford 37%, Draw 27%, Everton 36%

Last five PL head-to-heads:

Watford wins: 2

Draws: 1

Everton wins: 2

Watford goals: 10

Everton goals: 8

The term 'relegation six-pointer' is overused in football journalism, but it's also the perfect way to describe Watford's clash with Everton.

A date is yet to be set for this fixture, but it's certainly one in which both teams will be targeting all three points.

Win probability and head-to-heads point to a close contest, and considering the precarious position of both clubs in the table, it wouldn't be a surprise if the winner ultimately secures Premier League survival.

Verdict: The stats point to a draw, but with Watford losing eight successive games at home - at the time of writing - Everton will be majorly disappointed if they don't return to Merseyside with all three points.

West Ham (A)

Win probability: West Ham 54%, Draw 24%, Everton 22%

Last five PL head-to-heads:

West Ham wins: 2

Draws: 1

Everton wins: 2

West Ham goals: 3

Everton goals: 4

The statisticians favour West Ham in this one, but considering the Irons have a tough run of games ahead of this Everton clash, perhaps some of the wind will be taken out of their sails.

David Moyes and his men face two Europa League games against Sevilla while also facing in-form Aston Villa and Tottenham.

Everton have a good record at the London Stadium and have picked up seven points from their last three trips there.

Verdict: A lot can change by the time these two sides go head-to-head, but it's fair to say that a point will be Everton's minimal expectation.

Manchester United (H)

Win probability: Everton 26%, Draw 24%, Man United 49%

Last five PL head-to-heads:

Everton wins: 0

Draws: 4

Man United wins: 1

Everton goals: 7

Man United goals: 9

Manchester United have a near 50%-win probability heading into this game, despite the fact they've only won one of their last six league encounters with Everton.

Many of their recent head-to-head battles have been closely contested and considering United are far from their best, the Toffees certainly stand a chance.

The Red Devils are for the taking, but are Everton good enough to take advantage?

Verdict: Recent results would suggest no. However, even a point would go a long way in their pursuit of Premier League survival.

Crystal Palace (H)

Win probability: Everton 33%, Draw 27%, Crystal Palace 40%

Last five PL head-to-heads:

Everton wins: 2

Draws: 2

Crystal Palace wins: 1

Everton goals: 7

Crystal Palace goals: 6

Before these two sides clash in the Premier League, there is an FA Cup quarter-final game that will need taking care of.

That cup match could very well serve as an indicator for their upcoming league encounter.

Nevertheless, with Palace enjoying a strong campaign under Patrick Vieira, it's no surprise to see the win probability in favour of the Eagles.

Verdict: The statisticians might be against the Toffees in this one, but it's worth noting that Everton have won two of their last four encounters. With that in mind, anything short of a point would be calamitous.

Liverpool (A)

Win probability: Liverpool 81%, Draw 13%, Everton 6%

Last five PL head-to-heads:

Liverpool wins: 2

Draws: 2

Everton wins: 1

Liverpool goals: 11

Everton goals: 7

Let's be realistic, there's little positive we can say about Everton in this one.

Liverpool are looking to mount a late title challenge and the Toffees don't look to be in a position to derail them.

Verdict: A lot can change by the time these two play, but as things stand, earning a point against the Reds at Anfield would almost feel like a victory.

Chelsea (H)

Win probability: Everton 15%, Draw 21%, Chelsea 64%

Last five PL head-to-heads:

Everton wins: 2

Draws: 1

Chelsea wins: 2

Everton goals: 5

Chelsea goals: 8

It's hard to say much about Chelsea considering the ongoing off-field issues at Stamford Bridge.

If the Blues are playing to their full potential, it's hard to make a case for anything other than an away win.

However, should things change with regards to Thomas Tuchel's side, perhaps Everton could pull off something special.

Verdict: Everton know how to get the better of Chelsea having won seven points from their last five head-to-head encounters. Getting at least a point would go a long way in their survival bid.

Leicester (A)

Win probability: Leicester 51%, Draw 23%, Everton 25%

Last five PL head-to-heads:

Leicester wins: 2

Draws: 1

Everton wins: 2

Leicester goals: 5

Everton goals: 6

Interestingly, Leicester City have been given a higher win probability than Manchester United.

That does come as a surprise considering Everton haven't lost this fixture in their four most recent meetings across all competitions.

Verdict: Everton have done well at the King Power Stadium, winning three of their last five visits. However, with the Foxes improving in recent weeks, picking up all three points would take some doing. Another draw could be on the cards in this one.

Brentford (H)

Win probability: Everton 40%, Draw 27%, Brentford 33%

Last PL head-to-head:

*The two teams have only met once in the Premier League.

Brentford 1-0 Everton (November 28, 2021)

If there's one game on this list which Everton should win, it's this one.

Brentford have been on a slide for a while and could yet slip into a relegation battle.

Everton will need to pounce on their misfortune in order to improve their own survival hopes.

Verdict: Anything short of three points would be disastrous for the Toffees.

Arsenal (A)

Win probability: Arsenal 63%, Draw 22%, Everton 16%

Last five PL head-to-heads:

Arsenal wins: 1

Draws: 1

Everton wins: 3

Arsenal goals: 5

Everton goals: 7

Everton's final game of the season will take place at the Emirates. There is a possibility that this match could have an impact on both the bottom three and the top four.

Arsenal are showing signs of steady improvement under Mikel Arteta, and it's no surprise to see that the hosts have a win probability of 63%.

Nevertheless, Everton have a strong record against the Gunners and they shouldn't be easily underestimated.

Verdict: This match has the potential to be one of the most important games in the final round of fixtures. As things stand, Arsenal would be expected to end the season on a high, and take all three points.

Will Everton be relegated?

If win probability is to believed, Lampard's men will pick up nine points courtesy of wins over Wolves, Newcastle and Brentford. That would bring their total to 31 points - five below the Premier League's survival average.

Statistically speaking, yes, Everton will be relegated.

However, the good news for Toffee's supporters is that these are just numbers. In reality, anything is possible, no matter how tough their run-in appears to be.

A red card, an own goal, an injury, a VAR gaffe, a bad refereeing decision, a penalty - these are things unaccounted for by stats. With that in mind, Everton fans shouldn't lose hope ahead of a season-defining 11 games.