NFL week five betting tips: Best free picks and predictions

Week five of the NFL season kicks off with an NFC South clash between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Atlanta Falcons at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

This post will be updated on Friday with additional picks for this weekend.

Good luck and please gamble responsibly.

 

NFL week five tips and picks

Under 44.5 points - 9/10

 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons (1:15am BST, Fri)

We rounded off week four with a loss on Monday Night Football, but that didn't ruin a profitable week with three winning picks. On Thursday, we kick off week five with the Buccaneers (3-1) and the Falcons (2-2).

Atlanta opens as a narrow favourite on the spread, -1.5, with the total sitting at 44 points. We're immediately drawn to the under for two good reasons.

Firstly, this game could be about defence. Neither side ranks as an outstanding defence they sit in the middle of the pack. But there are a few positives to take, including the fact they both allow less than 50% conversion in the red zone.

The Falcons have relied on their defence a lot this season, finding ways to hold teams to just over 21 points on average. Considering they've played the Chiefs, the Eagles and the Saints, who scored 40+ in their first two games, that's pretty good going.

The offence has produced a shade under 19 points per game, so again, it was good defence that got them over the line in both of their wins, not good offence. Kirk Cousins and Co haven't been on the same wavelength thus far.

As good as the defence can be, ranking third in the NFL in net yards per play, they're 29th in third-down conversation rate and 28th in red zone scoring percentage.

When beating the Saints 26-24 last week, the offence failed to score a single touchdown. The spotlight will be on Cousins here, but he has a habit of not showing up in primetime TV games, going 13-20 in his career.

Baker Mayfield will be coming here with a chip on his shoulder after such a strong outing after throwing for 347 yards and two touchdowns against the Eagles last week, but he won't produce as big a number in Atlanta.

We'll grab the extra half point with Planet Sport Bet, who have the line at 44.5 points.

 

2024 Record: 5-3, +1.5u

 

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NFL Betting FAQs

 

Betting on the moneyline

The moneyline is a two-way market which gives you the option between betting on the home team or the away team.

If a game finishes level and goes to overtime, teams will continue to play for additional time and your bet is still valid.

 

How does NFL point-spread betting work?

The bookmakers assign a favourite for every match. The favourite will be -1 or greater, whilst the underdog will be +1 or greater.

Think of minus as a deficit to overcome, plus as an advantage to hold on to. If a team is -1, they must win by two clear points to beat the point spread.

If a team is +1, they need to avoid defeat to maintain their advantage and cover the point spread.

In the event the favourite wins by one, the bet is void, or 'pushed', and you'll get your money back.

 

Why bet on the NFL point spread?

The advantage of betting on the point spread is that you get to bet at better odds. Whilst a favourite may be slim pickings at 1/2, for example, they may be as high as 9/10 on the point spread.

You'll need them to win by a certain number of points, but it can be a worthwhile price to pay.

 

How does NFL total betting work?

The bookmakers set the total for each NFL game, which is influenced by historical factors such as results, offensive output and defensive efficiency. Basically, how good or bad a team is with or without the ball.

For example, if the total is set at 50.5, 50 or fewer points means the game has finished under the total, whilst 51 or higher means the game has gone over the total.

Sometimes you'll see whole numbers, such as 50. In the event the game finishes with that number of points, you'll get your money back.

 

Can I combine NFL bets into an acca?

Yes. Doubles, trebles, and accas are all possible when betting on the NFL. Sometimes you'll see these labelled as parlays if you're using an American website.

The advantage of an acca is being able to bet at much bigger odds, whilst the risk is you're more likely to lose your money, albeit a lower stake than backing all four bets separately.

 

Alternative point spreads and alternative total

Because an NFL game can produce a wide-ranging number of points, you have plenty of choices when it comes to betting markets.

For example, if you identify the Kansas City Chiefs should win, but you aren't betting on them to win by five or more points, you can take your pick.

The alternative markets allow you to bet on Kansas -1, -2, -3, -4, -5, and so on. If you're feeling brave and want bigger odds, you may chance -6.

The same logic applies to the points total, so you'll be able to adjust the number as you see fit.

This can be a useful strategy when you want to place an NFL acca but reduce the risk by betting at safer odds.

 

Prop betting

From time to time, you may see Planet Sport use prop bets. A prop bet is anything that doesn't directly determine the outcome of the match.

You can bet on touchdown scorer, number of touchdowns or field goals scored, how many yards the quarterback will throw the ball, player catches, tackles, fumbles, and much more.

 

How we pick our NFL tips

The Planet Sport team has extensive experience in the sports betting industry, including over a decade's worth of experience betting on the NBA, NFL, NHL and MLB.

Each week, our expert runs the rules over the week's fixtures and uses their own systems, plus some tried and tested situations that have stood the test of time, to find mistakes in lines and identify the best NFL picks.