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Saturday ITV Racing Tips: Best bets for Kempton, Lingfield and Newcastle

Forecast rain would be welcome for Kempton officials

ITV are showing eight races live on Saturday, including the Winter Derby and Eider Chase, and we've a tip for each.

We've listed our selections below, with the reasons be hind them further down the page, while you will find the race cards for Kempton, Lingfield and Newcastle at the Planet Sport Live Centre.

Selections:

Not A Role Model (13.15 Kempton)

Tone The Barone (13.30 Lingfield)

Knight Salute (13.50 Kempton)

Fancy Man (14.05 Lingfield)

Minella Drama (14.25 Kempton)

Shallwehaveonemore (15.00 Kempton)

Rath An Iuir each-way (15.15 Newcastle)

Zanza / Cap Du Nord (15.37 Kempton)

13.15 - Kempton - Not A Role Model

Likely favourite Flegmatik was an easy winner over 3m here last time out but a glance at his CV suggests he's unlikely to follow up, with his job made even harder by a 7lb hike in the weights.
Deyrann De Carjac has become well handicapped and he'll appreciate the ground drying out, which is a comment that also applies to Not A Role Model, who is given the vote at bigger odds.
Sam Thomas' ten-year-old has put in a couple of lacklustre efforts on soft ground since finishing a solid second on his reappearance at Chepstow in December (good to soft), and has been dropped a few pounds as a result.
That will help him and we know he likes this track and trip as he won on his only visit here, while he has more than an able pilot in Charlie Deutsch, who has scored on his last three rides for the in-form stable.

13.30 Lingfield - Tone The Barone

Last year's winner Lord Riddiford is respected of course but preference at slightly bigger odds is for Tone The Barone, who looked an obvious type for this 5f Listed contest when easily winning a Wolverhampton handicap in December.
He had the re-opposing Exalted Angel behind in second that day and can be forgiven an odds-on defeat here in January considering he was giving the winner Strong Power (much worse off today) and second plenty of weight.
Seemingly at the peak of his powers and with the stable amongst the winners of late, he should be bang there at the finish.

13.50 Kempton (Adonis Hurdle) - Knight Salute

Knight Salute had five previous winners in behind when making it 4-4 over hurdles at Doncaster in December and while that race was run at a modest gallop and developed into a bit of a sprint, the second, third (Impulsive One, who re-opposes) and fifth have all won since to frank the form.

That makes Milton Harris' gelding a deserving favourite for this Grade 2 contest, which was mentioned as a possible target after he won at Cheltenham in November, although he faces a potentially classy newcomer from the Flat in Pleasant Man.
Now with Paul Nicholls, who has won this race five times, most recently with Solo in 2020, he was rated far higher than Knight Salute on the level and is getting 5lb here from the penalised favourite.
But he was more of a staying type and today's relatively fast track and drying ground could play more into the hands of the Harris runner, who is taken to maintain his unbeaten record and book his place in the Triumph Hurdle.

14.05 Lingfield (Winter Derby) - Fancy Man

The John and Thady Gosden camp have been responsible for the last three winners of the Winter Derby, most recently with the returning Forest Of Dean, and their Lord North is the one they all have to beat in this year's renewal.
The six-year-old, who has not been seen since winning a Meydan Group 1 nearly a year ago, is odds-on across the board at the time of writing and that's predictable given he has upwards of 8lb in hand over today's rivals, headed by Alenquer.
The latter horse has a shorter absence to overcome, having finished ninth in October's Arc, but this trip of 1m2f is the bare minimum for him, and like Lord North he has an even bigger targets in the spring.
In which case, Richard Hannon's Fancy Man might be able to make his race fitness tell having won the Trial earlier this month in convincing fashion, coming home strongly after cornering widest of all in the straight.
Now 4-10 in his career and quite possibly still improving, he looks to have excellent place claims at the very least.

14.25 Kempton - Minella Drama

Having looked short of pace when a well beaten fifth in a Sandown Grade 1 run over 2m and with his best hurdles form coming over further, it was no surprise to see Minella Drama show more of his true colours when upped to 2m4f at Haydock last time, winning that Grade 2 contest with plenty to spare.
Now 5-10 under Rules, there should be more to come from Donald McCain's seven-year-old over fences as he learns his trade and he's fancied to take care of main market rival Pic D'Orhy, who failed to give his true running when only a distant third behind L'Homme Presse in a Sandown Grade 1 last time out.
He's much better than that, as he showed when winning impressively at Ascot previously, but the selection is a genuine Grade 1 performer in the making and is the more fluent jumper of the pair.

15.00 Kempton - Shallwehaveonemore

Shallwehaveonemore is back up in grade having made all the running to land the odds in an ordinary novice at Sandown earlier this month, when showing his appreciation for better ground than he had faced in the Grade 1 Tolworth previously.
Gary Moore's five-year-old is a short-priced favourite to follow up this afternoon and while the opposition looks strong - Aucunrisque and Frere D'Aumes in particular merit plenty of respect in their hat-trick bids - he should prove good enough off level weights.
Looking ahead to next month's Cheltenham Festival, he appeals as the type who could go well in the County Hurdle, if switching from the Supreme, as a strongly-run 2m and being able to come from off the pace would ideally suit this free-running sort.

15.15 Newcastle (Eider Chase) - Rath An Iuir (each-way)

A wide open renewal of the Eider Chase run over a gruelling 4m11/2f and set to be run on good to soft ground, instead of the usual heavy at this time of year.
That's not ideal for several of the fancied runners and including our selection, the Rose Dobbin-trained Rath An Iuir, who has won two of his three chase starts on deep ground.
However, it should still be a real stamina test and that will definite play to the strengths of the nine-year-old, who is considered to be an out-and-out stayer and looked an obvious type for this contest when powering clear of his rivals at Carlisle in November 2020, when his accurate jumping was again in evidence.
Given his long absence of 399 days, he can be forgiven a heavy defeat at Ayr last month and is sure to have had plenty of work since to sharpen him up for what would have been his target at the start of the season.
The stable form is another positive with a winner and a couple of big-priced seconds from just a handful of runners in the last fortnight, while Dobbin knows what's required to win this having sent out Rocking Blues to score in 2016.
Of the rest, Irish raider History Of Fashion has to be respected having looked improved when scoring over 3m at Down Royal last month under today's conditional rider Richard Condon, who is claiming 7lb off his back, while Venetia Williams' Achille has become well handicapped and is another with stamina in spades.

15.37 Kempton (Coral Trophy) - Zanza / Cap Du Nord (saver)

They don't come much trickier than this 3m handicap chase and the poor record of market leaders speaks for itself - a favourite hasn't won the race since Gungadu in 2008.
That doesn't bode well for current market leader Annsam, for all he arrives here on the back of a career-best effort over today's trip at Ascot, where he was making the most of his light weight and saw out the finish strongly.
He has to be thereabouts as does last year's fifth Cap Du Nord, who has tumbled down the weights - he's 15lb lower than 12 months ago - and has likely been primed for another attempt. With his trainer Christian Williams amongst the winners of late, he's very tempting although any value has gone.
The Big Breakaway looked back on track when a close up third over hurdles earlier this month following wind surgery, but his jumping technique leaves a lot to be desired and he wouldn't be the best handicapped horse in the field either.
A few of these are trying 3m for the first time, namely Galahad Quest, Beakstown and Zanza, and the latter horse appeals as the one who will relish the extra distance the most having more than once get going far too late over shorter, including when just getting up for second in the final stride at Cheltenham in December.
A couple of mistakes at successive fences put paid to his chances when returned to that track on New Year's Day and he does have blow-out potential given his inconsistent record - so a win-only bet is advised - but he looks like a horse with a decent pot in him and when faced with a stiffer test of stamina.
We'll have a safer too on Cap Du Nord but, be warned, we might not have even mentioned the winner.

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