West Brom vs Southampton tips and predictions: Fine margins in Championship play-offs

Southampton are heavy favourites to make it to the play-off final, yet we suggested in our late-season preview it was worth backing West Brom to sneak up.

Russell Martin’s side, as well as Leeds, inevitably have the bookmaker’s backing. Neither side is in great form and we think the Baggies are built for the play-offs.

No team conceded fewer goals at home from open play which is a testament to the structure and organisation Carlos Corberan has given his team.

The one effort they conceded on the break was a last-gasp loss to Leicester as every player pushed forward for the winner.

There will be a scrap for possession, and it’s one the visitors should edge, but the hosts are capable of making it hurried possession in tight areas.

Southampton’s away form against top-half teams has kept them from achieving automatic promotion. The Saints have won just three of 11, losing five.

On the other hand, they are unbeaten in six meetings with their fellow play-off contestants.

One of those was on the final day at Elland Road when Martin trialled a 5-3-2 system. It worked to a point, but it seems odd to be scratching around for new ideas this late in the day.

Corberan’s side has lost four games at home all season, with two of those being a product of sucker punches while pushing for a winner, and another owing to an early red card.

Their defensive record of 11 goals conceded in 20 home matches makes it tough to back a team that so often slips up on their travels.

A 1-1 draw feels the likeliest result, but we wouldn’t be shocked if West Brom edge it.

 

Suggested bets

West Brom +0.25 Asian handicap

Both teams to score

Under 2.5 goals