Tuesday EFL acca tips: Foxes maul Owls, Saints slip up in South West and County’s collapse continues
- George Dempsey
- 12 February 2024
Tuesday’s EFL acca focuses on five games from the Championship, League One and Two, including Leicester vs Sheffield Wednesday and Bristol City vs Southampton.
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EFL Acca
Bristol City +0.5 Asian handicap
Peterborough and Over 2.5 goals
Bristol City vs Southampton
The distraction of the FA Cup is behind Bristol City and they gave the perfect response to their exit with a surprise win away to Middlesbrough at the weekend.
Southampton ran out 5-3 winners against Huddersfield, but they didn’t have things their way in an error-strewn game.
It was nearly a rare slip-up from the Saints but their firepower helped them to an 11th consecutive home win across all competitions.
Their record away from home doesn’t make for as pleasant reading. Despite being unbeaten in 25 overall, Russel Martin’s side has drawn five of 10 and scored a single goal in six.
Bristol City’s only defeat in seven across all competitions was a 1-0 home loss against Leeds United. It could have been more, but the Robins held their shape well.
Despite having 33% of the ball at St Mary’s, City didn’t allow a single big chance and produced a marginally higher xG than their hosts in a 1-0 loss.
Leicester City vs Sheffield Wednesday
Leicester City don’t have any problems breaking down teams in the bottom half of the Championship. They have a perfect 8-0 record against the bottom half, outsourcing them 24-5.
Sheffield Wednesday produced a much-needed win against Birmingham at Hillsborough on Friday to give themselves a lifeline in the relegation dogfight.
We saw that result coming, and we can see this one coming. The Owls have lost 13 of their 16 away games and have failed to score in nine of them.
Their deep-lying approach does nothing to stifle the opposition as demonstrated by the fact 10 sides have scored at least two goals against them on their travels.
Enzo Maresca’s Foxes have taken the lead in their last 10 matches and come on strong in the second half, while the Owls tend to fall behind and have shipped 10 in the second half of their last three.
Peterborough United vs Port Vale
Posh have rattled in two or more goals in their previous 11 home League One fixtures and there’s little evidence that Port Vale can end that run.
The visitors have allowed two or more in half of their away matches and six of their last two. They haven’t been the most prolific side on their travels, scoring 11 in 15.
Darren Ferguson’tendsde tends to go through spells of clean sheets followed by a chaotic period, and they’ve allowed 10 in their last three matches.
This feels like a perfect opportunity to bounce back from three straight losses and although a clean sheet would be desirable, we still expect goals.
It may even be that the hosts score all of them for us, but we’re leaning towards a high-scoring home win.
Mansfield Town vs Harrogate Town
Mansfield are a very good team and they’re likely to be Stockport’s closest challenger for the League Two title, but they aren’t invincible.
The Stags have dropped points in five of 10 and nine of 20. They’ve won by two clear goals in 30% of their League Two matches this season.
At home, they’ve produced four wins by two clear goals in 20 matches across all competitions.
Visitors Harrogate are in the play-off places after Saturday’s late 1-0 win over Colchester which reflects how confident they are at the moment.
Town are unbeaten in five and nine of their last 10 and they’re also unbeaten in 10 of 11 on their travels, where they’ve lost by two or more goals just once all season.
Newport County vs Notts County
It’s a little bit of a head-scratcher, but Notts County haven’t looked very good since October.
The underlying numbers will tell you they should score more than they do because they create chances, and they aren’t cut open often enough to concede so many goals.
We’ve seen the odd outburst where it’s all levelled out at home but they’re winless in seven on their travels and are shipping 2.7 goals per game through their last 10.
There’s still every chance they make the play-offs but the same can be said for Newport who seem to be timing their push just right. The Welsh club are unbeaten in seven in the league.
Their only defeat in 10 came against Manchester United and they’ve only lost two of 17 on home soil, so it’s odd that County are clear favourites given current form.
