Spain vs Italy: Expect another tight affair in Nations League

Sergiu Baltuta
14 June 2023

Roberto Mancini was left 'too disappointed' to comment on his future after Italy loss

For the second time in the last two years, Spain and Italy will face each other in the semi-finals of the Nations League.

In 2021 La Roja won 2-1 but went on to lose the final against France.

This will be the 40th head-to-head meeting between two of Europe's powerhouses and the perfect opportunity for the Squadra Azzurra to get even. Spain have 12 wins, Italy have 11, with the remaining 16 games ending in a draw.

Both Spain and Italy started the year in bittersweet fashion, with one win and one defeat in their Euro 2024 qualifiers. Spain managed an excellent 3-0 win against Norway but then suffered a surprising 2-0 defeat to Scotland.

Italy, on the other hand, suffered a 1-2 defeat against England and then secured a 2-0 win against Malta.

Spain reached the UEFA Nations League semi-finals after winning Group A2, which featured Portugal, Switzerland and the Czech Republic. La Roja lost only one game in the group, 1-2 against Switzerland, and managed three wins and two draws.

Italy won a group containing Germany, Hungary and England. The Squadra Azzurra had the same results as Spain and thus finished the group with the same number of points, 11. The Italians' only defeat was 5-2 in Germany.

The two teams are thus evenly matched and past history suggests this is the case too. Three of the last six games between the sides have ended 1-1 and it would not be a surprise to see this scoreline repeated.

Suggested bet: Draw in 90 minutes

The Spanish team will approach the semi-finals with a different manager than the group stage. Luis Enrique left the job after a disappointing World Cup campaign and was replaced by former U19 and U21 coach Luis de la Fuente. This will be only his third game in charge after the aforementioned Euro 2024 qualifiers in March.

Italy will have revenge on their minds after Spain were the team that ended their record undefeated streak of 37 games. Roberto Mancini, whose job has been in danger of late (especially after failing to qualify for the World Cup and losing against Argentina in Finalissima), needs to win to feel more secure in his position.

Spain will be missing Sergio Busquets, Pedri and Ferran Torres, who scored both goals the last time the two teams faced each other. Only six of Spain's players from two years ago are in the squad for this game. Jordi Alba, who missed the March games and has just left Barcelona, was recalled by Luis de la Fuente and will be Spain's captain.

For Italy, Domenico Berardi and Monza captain Matteo Pessina will be unavailable due to injury.

Games between Spain and Italy are typically low-scoring affairs, with under 2.5 goals in six of the last eight encounters. This is likely to be another tight affair.

Suggested bet: Under 2.5 goals

Sergiu Baltuta provides football tips as SVB Tips on Tipstrr