Southampton vs West Brom tips and predictions: Boing Boing Baggies bouncing to Wembley

The consensus is Southampton should advance to the Championship play-off final having done a competent job in the away leg against West Brom at the weekend.

Yet the play-offs are an unpredictable beast, particularly with the tie level at 0-0, so we want to be open to the possibility of West Brom causing an upset on Friday.

Also, we made our bed when we predicted West Brom would navigate the play-offs and get promoted, so we’re going to lay in it and back them to reach Wembley.

The Saints finished the season in fourth place despite a staggering 23-match unbeaten run and in many other seasons, 87 points would mean promotion.

Sunday’s stalemate extended their unbeaten run versus teams in the play-offs to seven matches, including two wins and a draw against the Baggies.

But this is a one-off match and Carlos Corberan has the tools and tactical understanding to thrive in this situation. It will be backs to the wall, but his team is built to defend.

Only Leicester and Leeds produced a marginally better defensive record than Albion, who conceded only 1.02 goals per game across 46 matches.

We saw some very competent away performances when they visited Leeds (2-2), and Leicester (1-2), where they were unfortunate to lose.

They also held Ipswich twice, but their most impressive away showing was away to Southampton, as they held Martin’s side to 53% possession and outscored them on xG.

The Saints dropped points in eight of 23 at home, which equates to 35% of matches, but several of those came early in the season when they were in crisis.

That said, a common thread is struggling against top teams. They failed to beat five of six fellow top-seven teams at St Marys', so we’ll back the Baggies to at least force extra time.

 

Suggested bets

West Brom +0.5 Asian handicap

Winner of tie: West Brom

Both teams to score

 

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