Saturday’s EFL acca tips and predictions: Swans batter Millers, Preston and Norwich to entertain
- Rhys Tovey
- 12 April 2024
Promotion and relegation is on the line in the EFL this weekend as Rhys Tovey picks out his favourite acca bets from the Championship, League One and League Two
Portsmouth, Stockport and Wrexham could secure promotion in the EFL this weekend with plenty of jostling in the Championship play-off and relegation scrap.
Rhys Tovey is searching for profitable angles across all three leagues in this weekend's EFL acca.
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Saturday’s EFL acca
Preston vs Norwich: Both teams score
Barnsley vs Reading: Both teams score
Oxford vs Peterborough: Both teams score
Walsall vs Notts County: Both teams score
Preston North End vs Norwich City
Five teams are still in with a chance of claiming the sixth play-off place, including Norwich and Preston who meet this weekend.
The Canaries occupy that final playoff spot but the visitors are just five points behind with a game in hand. A win for the visitors puts them in the driving seat so we think they’ll go all out to win.
Preston have a strong scoring record at home, only failing to score four times in twenty-one games. They have found the back of the net in seven of their last eight home matches, scoring seven goals in two at Deepdale.
On the other hand, their defence has struggled. They’ve kept three clean sheets at home and both teams to score handed in 71% of matches.
City’s away record is similar. They have scored in all but three away games and each of their last thirteen league matches.
Just like Preston at home, Norwich have struggled for clean sheets on the road, managing two all season, both of which came against sides currently in the bottom six. Both teams to score has landed in 76% of Norwich’s away games.
Swansea City vs Rotherham United
Swansea haven’t won by a two-goal margin regularly this season, but they’ve done exactly that in their last two home wins, and Rotherham are a shambles.
They were relegated with six games to go and currently sit 19 points behind Birmingham, the team directly above them.
The Millers haven’t won away from home this season, losing 17 of 21. Thirteen of those 17 defeats have been by two or more goals, as have each of their last four away games.
Leam Richardson's arrival hasn’t helped matters at United have shipped three goals per game on their travels under his stewardship.
It is always tricky to predict a game at this stage of the season when both sides have nothing to play for, although the Swans may want one more win to secure their status, Rotherham’s horrific away form makes this a worthwhile bet.
Barnsley vs Reading
Barnsley are nine points outside of the automatic promotion places but six clear of seventh place, so the play-offs beckon for the Tykes.
Finishing in the playoffs may be seen as a good season, but the Yorkshire club are left imagining what could have been if they had a better defence. Seventy-five goals scored is the third best in the league, but fifty-five goals conceded is the worst amongst the top eleven.
They have found the back of the net in 18 of 21 matches at Oakwell so you’d expect them to find their shooting boots against Reading who, despite keeping a clean sheet in their last away game, have only kept two on their travels this season.
On the other hand, the Royals have scored in each of their last 17 league games and Barnsley have only kept one clean sheet in 12 home games, their only one in 15 matches.
Notably, both teams have found the net in 21 of Barnley’s previous 24 matches.
Oxford United vs Peterborough United
Oxford occupy the final play-off place but Peterborough are lurking six points behind them with two games in hand, so this is a crucial clash.
The U’s have hit form at just the right time. They have won three of their last four, scoring four goals in each of their last two. They have found the back of the net in all but two of their home games this season, averaging 1.9 goals scored per home game.
Opponents Peterborough are in good form having won seven of their last nine league games, but defensively, they have kept just five clean sheets away from home this season, with all but one of those coming against sides in the bottom eight.
Despite these less-than-convincing defensive numbers, Peterborough have only picked up three points less away from home than at home in one less game.
That in itself shows just how strong they must be offensively. Posh’s eighty goals is the best in the league. They have only failed to score three times all season and just once in their last seventeen away games.
Despite the good recent form, Oxford have kept just six clean sheets across Des Buckingham’s twenty-six games in charge, with just one of those coming against sides thirteenth in the table or higher.
Walsall vs Notts County
Walsall are still in contention for a spot in the League Two play-offs as they sit just three points behind seventh-placed Crawley Town.
This weekend’s opponents, Notts County, would have expected to be in contention for promotion but their shocking form has seen them plummet down the table.
They’ve picked up 13 points from a possible 51 since the turn of the year, conceding 36 goals and keeping just two clean sheets.
Macauley Langstaff is the league’s top scorer currently with 25 and the Magpies are the second-highest scorers, scoring one less than league leaders Stockport.
Even during the seventeen-game run of poor results, they have only failed to score three times and six times this season.
Walsall’s numbers also look appealing from a both-team-to-score standpoint. They scored 16 of 20 at home and 10 of their previous 11.
It also helps that they’ve conceded in eight of their last nine at home and 17 of their last 19 overall.
