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MLS betting tips: Wayne Rooney's DC United to cause shock of the season against Atlanta United

DC United manager Wayne Rooney on May 27, 2023

We've used expected goal data to find the value in MLS Matchday 18 and it's thrown up some interesting bets, including DC United to beat Atlanta United.

So far this season, home teams have won 49% of the 233 MLS matches to be played. Six of this week's home sides are odds on, with another two around the even money mark.
In analysing this week's fixtures, it's noticeable that the prices on home teams are higher and it looks like a tougher week to call, hence no MLS accumulator for Matchday 18.
Using expected goals to set the odds for this weekend's fixtures, George came up with just two teams that could be odds on - New England Revolution and San Jose Earthquakes.

Suggested value bets

DC United to win

Minnesota United to win

San Jose Earthquakes to win

Atlanta United vs DC United verdict

The perception here is Atlanta is a top team and DC United are a poor team. Placing a bet on the DC United will be uncomfortable and most people wouldn't give much thought before happily betting on Atlanta.
Their xG for and xG against are indeed better than the league average at home, but equally, DC United have the best away differential in the league at +2.8xGD.
In reality, they've conceded 11 and scored 10, which stills represent a very competitive road team in MLS. They held Philadelphia and Chicago to 0-0 draws and have picked up three wins.
DC United are starting to look like a solid unit. They're a far, far better side than last year. Wayne Rooney is doing a top job and the additions of Lewis O'Brien and Mateusz Klich have done wonders.
Ex-Leeds United midfielder Klich created nine chances in a single match last weekend, by far the most in an MLS game this season. He's now played 37 key passes (a pass leading to a goalscoring opportunity) for DC this season.
The last five meetings between these sides have been decided by a single goal, usually coming in the late, late stages of the match. This DC team is better than the previous ones.

Suggested bet: DC United to beat Atlanta United

Montreal Impact vs Minnesota United verdict

Montreal have won their last four MLS matches at home and six in all competitions. They haven't conceded a single goal in that time.
There aren't numbers on the two cup competitions, but their xG against in those four MLS matches equates to 3.72 goals. They outscored their opponents 7-0.
Only three teams face more shots per game than Montreal on average, yet only four teams in the MLS have a worse save percentage. What's going on? Luck, maybe.
Poor teams tend to underperform their xG for and find ways to concede goals they shouldn't. Their wins came against New York RB, Orlando, Toronto and Inter Miami. Hardly surprising.
Only three teams have allowed more shots on target than Minnesota, who have the second-best xG differential on their travels. On top of that, no one has a higher xG on their travels.
They've done this while missing their most creative player, Emmanuel Reynoso. He returned last weekend to play 25 minutes. He touched the ball every 30 seconds on average, played two key passes and had an 88.9% pass completion rate.

Suggested bet: Minnesota United to beat Montreal Impact

San Jose Earthquakes vs Philadelphia Union verdict

San Jose are the favourites to improve on their terrific home form when they play host to Philadelphia Union. Despite that, the price could be lower, so they represent value.

 

Philadelphia are slowly starting to look like the time that made it to MLS Cup last season. However, even that team failed to win 10 of their 17 away matches.

 

Philadelphia’s improving form and San Jose winning just one of their last five matches have contributed to these odds. It’s priced as a game that could go either way, and that’s fair enough.

 

However, the Earthquakes are unbeaten in their seven matches at home. They have an xG for of 13.2, which is better than the league average of 11.9 despite playing one to two games fewer than most teams.

 

Even better, they’re taking most of those chances with 11 goals scored so far. Only one team has a better defensive xG than San Jose, who on average are allowing 0.81xG against per game at home.

 

Indeed, they’ve allowed just four goals. But the strength of the opponent counts for a lot, doesn’t it? Well, they’ve beaten Los Angeles FC 2-1 and came within seconds of a 1-0 win over Dallas.

Suggested bet: San Jose Earthquakes to beat Philadelphia Union

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