MLS betting tips and picks, Matchday 13: Back Minnesota United against Houston Dynamo

George Dempsey
17 May 2023

Matchday 12 is in the books and the first midweek fixture list of the Major League Soccer season is upon us. We know, it’s exciting...

Before we unravel matchday 13, some housekeeping. After last week's poor attempt at humour, we received an email from Alexi's publicist.

He asked us to point out that Alexi hasn't had a beard since 2010 and holds down a respectable job as a presenter and co-commentator.

Therefore, he's not a trolley pusher living out of cardboard boxes. Furthermore, he's strawberry blonde.

On to the action. Matchday 12 was a truly wild one. There were eight ejections (English: red cards), three PKs (English: Penalty kicks) and a bunch of injury-time drama.

If you exclude the five matches that finished 1-0, 1-1 or 2-0, then all eight of this weekend's matches featured three or more goals.

From a betting perspective, that's pleasing. Everyone knows that betting on under 2.5 goals in a televised soccer match isn't a viable option. It's just not the same cheering for the goaltender (English: Goalkeeper).

Suggested bets

Minnesota United to win

Minnesota vs Houston: Over 2.5 goals

FC Cincinnati -0.75 Asian handicap

MLS Matchday 13 preview

Minnesota United have had an interesting month. They've conceded three goals in consecutive games to Vancouver, Philadelphia and Sporting KC.

That's something that may deter potential backers. On the flip side, they're only five Nashville defenders away from being the best defence in the league, so that's something.

The reality is Minnesota have underperformed against their xG by a considerable amount. They've drawn three of their four home matches and had chances to win each of those.

Their matchday 13 opponents are Houston Dynamo. Their winning streak and run of six consecutive home clean sheets were halted by Seattle on Sunday. They'll be keen to bounce back, but they struggle in road games (English: away games).

They've won five of their last 46 away games in MLS, losing 31 and conceding a total of 90 goals. They've also lost their last five meetings with Minnesota, are winless in this fixture in seven, and have conceded at least two goals in all of those matches.

Expected goals has this one marked as the game with the highest xG value this midweek, the majority of which belong to Minnesota. We expect that to be reflected on the pitch.

Another piece of value could lie in backing FC Cincinnati. They're fairly slim odds, but we know they should be shorter still. We can boost the price a little by using the Asian handicap market.

They'll be welcoming Montreal to TQL Stadium. We think the visitors will be fat and happy after six consecutive wins, and they could let themselves down after back-to-back wins over Canadian rivals Toronto FC.

Cincy have been on a tear this season and they never forget their scoring cleats (English: boots). They're forever putting the ball on frame (English: on target) and have even scored some headshots (English: headers).

Just last week, Alvaro Barreal hit a sweet slapshot into the upper 90 against Wayne Rooney's DC United (English... Kind of: He banged it top bins).

Don't let the equally superb form of these sides fool you, as Montreal haven't left home comforts for a while. They've lost five of six on their travels without scoring, conceding 14 times.