League One 2023/24 season promotion tips: Back Derby for the title and Lincoln to make surprise push
- George Dempsey
- 27 July 2023
Planet Sport takes a look at the predicted movers and shakers in the League One promotion race which could include Lincoln City and Charlton Athletic.
Reading, Blackpool and Wigan will be seen as likely contenders but there are no easy games at this level and they'll have to take it one game at a time.
Can they do it on a cold, wet Tuesday night in Lincoln with an air raid siren blaring and 6ft 6 Paudie O'Connor barrelling towards them?
If our predictions are in the slightest bit reliable, then sorry you relegated lot, but the answer is no. Join us as we pick out four contenders for promotion from League One.
League One outright betting tips
Derby County
Despite missing out on the play-offs, you could argue that Derby County still overachieved in their first season at League One level.
The club attracted several high-profile players and finished the season with the fourth-best defensive record while Charlton was the only side outside the top six to outscore them.
One more point would have done it and their failure did come down to individual moments, such as Bristol Rovers 95th-minute penalty or drawing 1-1 with MK Dons despite recording 29 shots to the visitor's three.
Still, Paul Warne did a terrific job to blend a hastily put-together squad that spent the season operating under the dark cloud of Mel Morris' legacy.
The Rams are free to spend (sensibly) this summer but have already made a statement with the free signings of Sonny Bradley, Curtis Nelson, Callum Elder and Joe Ward.
The risk is that such a big rebuild takes time but there should be enough quality, experience and goals to pick up points in the meantime.
Verdict: Derby's defence, led by Bradley, should be stingy. Connor Washington can replace the goals of David McGoldrick and Paul Warne could earn a fourth promotion from this level.
Lincoln City
Lincoln have been making steady progress since gaining promotion from League Two in 2019. They made the League One play-offs in 2021 but were beaten by Blackpool despite leading.
The club has changed hands since then and spent the next two seasons consolidating as the structure of the backroom and the playing staff were overhauled.
Sometimes the eye test is all you need and it looks like Lincoln is a club on the up. They have a clear strategy and they've recruited extremely well this summer.
They've plugged the holes left by some notable departures, particularly Regan Poole who has joined Portsmouth, and they've added much-needed goals to their lineup.
Tyler Walker has bags of Championship experience and could better the 14 goals and three assists he recorded during his first spell at the LNER Stadium.
City's top three scorers managed a combined 24 goals last season as Mark Kennedy's men drew 19 games either 0-0 or 1-1 this season. The defence wasn't an issue as they allowed just one goal per game.
Verdict: Mark Kennedy should be able to keep things moving in the right direction. It's a tough place to visit and they know how to grind it out on the road.
Charlton Athletic
There's been so much drama behind the scenes that have impacted the club on and off the pitch but despite that, there were times you could see they showed promise.
You can probably put the inconsistency down to a mix of distractions off the field, including ownership issues and fan protests, coupled with being a very young side.
Athletic won just five of their first 21 matches pre-Dean Holden, averaging 1.14 points per game. Since his arrival, they've won 11 matches and averaged 1.52 points per game.
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They've added experience, goals and proven League One quality to the team over the summer and cleared out a lot of the deadwood.
They've made smart additions such as Michael Hector in January and Alfie May who has 50 goal involvements at this level across two seasons.
Tayo Edun will provide energy and assists at left-back while the might of their midfield and the goals they'll score will be enough to push for the top six at a minimum.
Verdict: If the Addicks can reproduce last season's best from the start then they'll be comfortably in the promotion picture. We expect them to be one of the top scorers.
Portsmouth
Portsmouth were playing Premier League football until relegation in the 2009/10 season, in which they also competed in the UEFA Cup (Europa League) and were FA Cup runners-up.
A 16th-place finish in the Championship was followed by back-to-back relegations and a four-year stint in the fourth tier of English football.
Whatever problems they've suffered from, Pompey has always been extremely well-backed by capacity crowds over 20,000 and they always look good on paper.
Their form under John Mousinho would have been enough to qualify for the play-offs throughout a full season and the expectation is they're a shoe in this year.
They've retained the best of last year's squad while also moving in a new direction and poaching star players from clubs around Leagues One and Two.
Notably, they haven't had a striker score more than 15 goals for several years but the exciting Kusini Yengi is a giant who was involved in 17 A-League goals last season.
Verdict: This is the most exciting group of players Pompey has had for years, but they also have the know-how for a promotion push. Yengi could be the signing of the season.
