Friday’s EFL acca tips and predictions: Goals at Norwich, Saints and Rovers

The Easter Weekend separates the contenders from the pretenders, particularly in the Championship.

Ipswich Town face a mean set of fixtures across the next six days while Leeds United also have a tough run.

Good Friday is unpredictable, but our EFL acca focuses on the goals market.

 

Planet Sport Bet special: Bet on an acca with a minimum of five selections and if you win, your payout will be boosted by 50%

 

Good Friday EFL acca

Preston vs Rotherham: Under 2.5

QPR vs Birmingham: Under 2.5

Norwich vs Plymouth: Over 2.5

Southampton vs Middlesborough: Over 2.5

Blackburn vs Ipswich: Over 2.5

 

Preston vs Rotherham

This sounds like a drab fixture on paper and we’re hoping it will be just as drab on grass as we back under 2.5 goals and check the score at full-time.

However, it’s fascinating from a statistical point of view. Rotherham’s xG home and away is the lowest in the Championship and they are bottom of the league.

Preston are only marginally better and could still reach the play-offs. We know that one goal is roughly worth one point, and North End have scored 49 and amassed 56 points.

Had they performed in line with their xG this season, they could have found themselves down there with the Millers.

Rotherham typically concede two to three goals on their travels but these numbers will ring true at some point, and neither side is a good watch, so this could be scrappy.

 

QPR vs Birmingham

QPR have been scoring and conceding fairly regularly since the turn of the year but that seems to be evening itself out now.

The R’s lost 2-0 at home to Middlesbrough and drew 0-0 away to Sunderland in their last two matches.

There have been under 2.5 goals in Birmingham’s last four matches and four of five on their travels.

This is a monumental clash in the relegation battle and neither side will want to overcommit themselves early and make a mistake.

It may open up eventually but both sides are in the bottom six for chance creation in their respective roles as home and away sides.

 

Norwich City vs Plymouth Argyle

That concludes the nailbiting portion of Friday’s acca so let’s turn our attention to teams that regularly find the net starting with Norwich and Plymouth.

Delia dreams of another trip to the Premier League, but Argyle have their own war to wage as they look to avoid a swift return to League One.

The Canaries have rattled in an average of three goals per game at home this year and have found a way to concede at least once in four games.

There have been under 2.5 goals in 10 of the visitor’s 19 away games and although City’s numbers largely drive this bet, few teams allow more big chances than Argyle.

Notably, eight of their 10 losses have resulted in over 2.5 goals and both teams have scored in seven of those matches.

 

Southampton vs Middlesbrough

This fixture has the potential to be chaotic. Middlesbrough recently beat Leicester 2-1 and took an early lead before losing 3-2 at Leeds earlier in the season.

Boro are finding their form again under Michael Carrick while the Saints, invincible for 23 matches, must be stunned to be nine points behind second place.

Their defence is suffering having conceded 18 goals in eight matches. They lost four of those matches.

It could have been worse had they not scored five times in the final 10 minutes of games to claim five points.

Boro have scored two or more goals 12 times on their travels but they allow 1.63 goals per game away from the Riverside.

 

Blackburn Rovers vs Ipswich Town

Any of the top four could slip up this weekend. This is the second of three live games on Friday, along with Bristol City vs Leicester and Watford vs Leeds.

Blackburn are unbeaten in eight of their last 10 and both losses came away from Ewood Park where they held Newcastle in the FA Cup.

The change of manager has made them a little bit more resilient but both teams have scored in 12 consecutive home games.

Ipswich have won seven of eight and put six past Sheffield Wednesday last weekend, taking their tally in 2024 to 32 goals.

The Tractor Boys beat Rovers 4-3 earlier this season and both teams have scored at least twice in three of four meetings.